This week is dedicated to only one single factor Nvda So far nvda has rewarded the market every single time, right now not one analyst or prediction is calling for anything else, but the best earnings results this week. Everyone is already saying that nvda is going to reward the markets once again and that the markets will continue their run higher amd higher. Any miss or guidance not favored by analysts will have this collapsing back towards 100 a share!! As for semiconductors. Nvda will be the deciding factor at this moment and time......hey who knows maybe nvda beats and guides higher moves up only to start its drop in the weeks ahead. Maybe this will be a sell on the news, given the fact markets are at highs maybe some will start locking in profits ahead of the new year.
PE ratio of 72. If you're not ready to sell now, when? Are you hoping for PE 150? PE 300? I'll say it. Sell nvda and rebalance into other stuff.
I am taking the viewpoint that chip stocks rally for a bit from here. My target for the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is 5600 before stalling out in this rally.
SMH just went below the 200-day SMA. It could be the bottom or the cycle is over and more collapse is coming.
I probably had one of the worst timed calls in the history of ET. But I expect some short covering and then more downside but I still expect 5600 in SOX by the end of the year.
The problem with the semiconductor trade is growth is slowing in the economy generally & the massive buying in nVidia H200 cards is slowing. So until they roll out the Blackwell chips it probably goes sideways to lower. I think the AI hardware isn't over, it's just paused.