If you know what days the market is going up or down just go long or short futures. Better profit and return overall. I have never seen anyone make a good argument for shorting calls or puts when the market is making a strong move. If you think GOOG is going to run really far in the next week would you buy a covered call ATM and cap off all that upside?
you are right mister. My 'master' sold naked puts options during the devastating 2011 Japan Tsunami. and he earned tons of money. well. I wouldn't sell naked options for reasons stated earlier.
I guess he sold naked put Nikkei options rather than buying Nikkei was that his return would be much better
I prefer selling my covered equity puts on down days - I suppose I'm more a falling knife type of guy. But ultimately I don't think the entry point really matters. There is very little correlation between what the market does and what I think is most likely. So I take a position, relax, and adjust according to how the position changes. Within limits, I don't even care whether the stock moves into the money. I wait until there is a nickel or less of time value, buy it back, and sell a week further out with more time value. Trading intrinsic value for time value works very well for me. But it can slow down the rate of return if the market or equity is going down.
Never conflate luck with good trading -selling naked is for morons-risk is in effect unlimited, or limited to the amount of equity in your home
I buy puts in shorter days to expiration than my shorts. Then I wait for long puts in the same expiration as my short puts to decay. After a period of time, I will buy puts in the same expiration as my shorts. I also place some calendar spreads as small hedges. I monitor my Greeks closely and the analyze tab in thinkorswim to keep my portfolio risk in check.