Selling China in 2008 is like selling America in 1908...

Discussion in 'Economics' started by Port1385, Jan 31, 2009.

  1. We all know that Jim Rogers has been right so many times. So is it time to get back into the FXI?

    China Communications Construction
    China Construction Bank
    China Life Insurance
    China Mobile Ltd.
    China Petroleum & Chemical
    China Shenhua Energy
    China Telecom
    CNOOC, Ltd.
    Industrial & Commercial Bank of China
    PetroChina
     
  2. me2

    me2

    dollar cost avg in for the next 25yrs.
     
  3. Investing in China, IMO, carries huge political and war risks going forward. The better comparison would be putting money into Tsarist Russia in 1908.
     
  4. do not invest in china, because there maybe a major shitstorm coming.

    do not short china, as the entire market is controlled by the government, and it still has a tons of cash reserve that can be used to plug the hole and possible avoid this world financial storm.

    so in summary, i would not play china right now. It is too uncertain.
     
  5. clacy

    clacy

    This would be my stance as well, fwiw
     

  6. Protectionism makes or breaks China.

    Oil makes or breaks Russia.

    Dollar printing makes gold.

    US central bank sales break gold.

    etc. etc.

    Flip a coin.
     
  7. The prices of the FXI (and its individual components listed above) are down, but they just took a dive back to 2006/2007 pricing. They are not off the map much like the SPY or its major components. Some of the SPY's components are in uncharted territory, 90s pricing.


    The reason why I bring this up is because Jim Rogers has been eerily right this past few years. Rogers is making this statement while living in China. He has some first hand knowledge of what is going on over there.
     
  8. svrart

    svrart

    Hi, I am a US citizen living in China. I have heard that the export related part of the economy is down, but from what I see first hand things are ok. There is no way I would buy US stocks but have no problem buying Chinese ones.
     
  9. What's the point. It's well known that the price action on the Shanghai stock market is well manipulated. HELLO!!! It's a Communist country!
     
  10. I sell electronic parts to thousands of electronic firms in China. My 2008 Q4 revenue was down 30% again Q3. And 2009 Q1 orderbook is <50% of 2008 Q4 level.

    The situation is extremely serious in my industry.
     
    #10     Feb 1, 2009