SELL Natty

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by Comanche, Jun 5, 2007.

  1. Sell natty here at 8.100+, will collapse by end of day. Likely head back to the 7.500 area in a hurry.
  2. Are you saying this on purely technical grounds? Thought about buying one today at around 8.08 but the energy market seems to be pretty sick today. I will wait to see what tomorow brings. With huricane season upon us I would see no reason to sell nat gas. I think guys run to natty the most of any of the energies during the huricane season.
  3. More of a dynamic reason.

    As far as techs go, we are back at the top of the range we've been stuck in for a long while.

    Underlying fundamentals are EXTREMELY weak at the moment. Loosest S/D I've seen in some time. Morning cash is shit, getting weaker by the day (hub traded -.35 back from July today).

    Storage injections are the best unbiased snapshot at S/D balance. We've been running above last year and the 5 year avg by a good clip for weeks now thus providing a clear trend that we are very well supplied. This weeks EIA should be +110 or greater, and another triple digit report for next week as well. If we don't get some kind of serious interruption of supply, we are on track to a record start to winter.

    As far as hurricanes go, 2004 was a 25 year event. 2005 was a 50 year event. The fact that we had them back to back was a black swan event in itself. All the years I have dealt with storms in the gulf, I have not seen damage like that. The next time you see gas spike to the teens will not be from a hurricane, but rather a brutal early winter that threatens supply.

    The action I have seen in the forwards tell me that Brian Hunter is up to his old tricks again (Owning all the H/J out through 2012). If it isn't him, it's his evil twin brother. Watch for a repeat here!!

    Smart money isn't getting entrenched at this level on the long side, and unless you like giving $$ to the gods, I don't suggest you attempt a buy at these levels.
  4. You bring up some good points. But I thought Brian Hunter blew up?