So, do we get the bounce next week that hits 940 in the next 2 weeks, or, does it fall off the ledge and head south for the summer?
Ah ... you've learned from your past experiences, now that's what I call good trading. *** But you let the trade go -25pts against you, and you're only looking at 16 pts of profit (so far) ... so the R:R ratio is less than 1:1 (more like 1.00/0.64), and you entered the trade on 6/10/09, and there have been oh ... 17 trading days passed since then, so that's an average of slightly less than 1pt per day (not factoring in commissions). Your trade definitely wins on that account, so we can give it 1pt of profit per day. Soooo ... when you look at the trade from those metrics, it's not so hot, but not so bad either. It's a solid "B" (breakeven is a "C", and being able to average 2+pts per day would rate you an "A"). Good job.
Nobody here knows the answer to your question definitively Topper. (so stop asking it). All we can do is trade the setups we get (whether they are intra-day or etend for a few days, weeks or more). TLGE is betting on a drop, I say support comes in and we head back up ... but only time will tell.
Just moved trailing stop down to 902 Locking in 29 points. Currently at 885ish. 880 might be key. Note: Dow under 8,000 and I will add 5-10 more contracts.
Another choice! Take you profit and wait to see if it breaks-if reversal then go long on up confirm of the hourly-if more down then re-enter short with tighter stop-look at the Big M-as you may well be right-but why take a chance if you do not have to-when you can have the best of both worlds if you want. A break down might be hard and swift-but might also catch you out. BTW-I take it that you are using the cash and not the ES chart? I like your style-I used to trade like that once upon a time Never be afraid to change your mind-or think about what others say-it is your money-not theirs. The General
At 885 when I was typing, I thought of what scenario could play out to get me frustrated: Rally, stop me out at 902ish area, then down to 880, then back up, then pause, then big break. without me. It was only HOPE that the market was doing it's "Monday Trend" and closing under 880. In hindsight, I probably would have done the same thing. I almost sold a few at 886ish and decided to not do anything unless it closes under 880. If the ES went say 878 or lower and then closed where it finally did, then I could see some good regrets. currently at 894. Hmmmmm.... I really do see much lower, but just not exactly sure the road it will take to get there.
875.25 was a great opportunity to have reversed your position. Going to 1000, reverse and then it shall pass 800 on the way down to 1994 levels. Good luck.
A lucky day as I wasn't around to watch the market. I moved my stop to 892. It sure feels like it will get crushed from here, but if it doesn't I don't really want to watch a rally. Will still sell an extra 5-10 under Dow 8,000. Under 870 and maybe we see 820. I will move stop lower to around 882 if we close under 870. I might even take off 5 on a big move down. just not sure.
This is a no-brainer. NYSE Bullish % Index, which tells all, is very much in a bearish mode. Just need to follow it, to tell you when to cover.
I still think it's funny how a trade now up over +50 ES points was rated 1/5 stars. I know, we all want friends more than money. starting to get concerned. IF the ES closes above 880 I will cover 5. I also want to sell some 30-year bond futures, but that trade has not worked recently. tried below 118, fail. when bond trades work, they make ES look asleep.