Nothing has changed. Credit used to be DOPE. Now credit is tight, and will get tighter as banks continue to detoxify their balance sheets and raise cash to meet regulatory requirements. Also, jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs. Until you see unemployment numbers not rise in the U.S., you're fighting the biggest risk of all. When you see Nissan and Toyota (Lexus) laying workers off or buying them out, wow. These rallies are great opportunities to unload. *However, you can count on support, at least, and maybe some hot action in equities and sectors that were previously crushed by high oil prices, such as refineries, chemical co's, etc.
buy lo nearly 99% of this rally is based off of oil dropping from $147, thats it....everyone is happy because instead of $4+ a gallon some are now paying $3.75, everything seems to be great, gas prices down 25 days in a row. Im just still looking for the FOOLS who said oil was going higher and that peak oil was here and that $200+ oil was coming. They always tend to say its different this time around, FOOOOOOOLSSSS Look at the commodity bubble going pop.....and they said it wasnt a bubble.
All the talking heads said ITS NOT A recession because were not looking 150,000-200,000 jobs a month, WERE ONLY losing 25-75k a month. I laugh at that too.
If Cramer (some of us call him 'Crames') calls a bottom in the not too distant future, that's the final piece of confirmation I will need to go out ballistically short. Oh, and if Bernanke and/or Paulson open their lying, thieving mouths to tell us the U.S. economy is stable, that works, too.
Ya think? I don't. I think hope trumps reality. We'll see, though. Maybe you're right. After all, who needs a growing job market, and what importance does a shrinking one have.
Up to where should I sell all rallies? 1350? 1400? 1450? Whats the stop? Oh no stop needed right? This is a 100% dead sure bet?
Did the market need a growing job market in 1990/1991 as crude oil was cut in half and the market rallied 20%?