This is a blurb taken from a morning newsletter I subscribe to: "Awareness is the key to high performance. Top performers are thoughtful, and completely aware of what it takes to perform skillfully. Dr. David Dunning, a psychology professor at Cornell University, argues that poor performers are "blissfully unaware of their incompetence." They overestimate their abilities. Their intuition tells them that their performance is superior, yet objective estimates show their actual performance is under par. For example, when people are asked to take a test measuring abilities, such as thinking logically, writing grammatically, and spotting funny jokes, they tend to overestimate their performance: they think they are performing well above average, yet their actual performance is in the bottom 25%. These biased estimates aren't restricted to taking tests. People in a variety of settings and skill areas overestimate their abilities. Debate teams in college tournaments wrongly think they are eloquent debaters. Hunters who are bad shots think they are expert marksmen. And medical residents think they know how to diagnose patients more accurately than they really can. Studies have even shown that when people are offered money to estimate their performance accurately, they still can't do it. Behavioral economists have similarly demonstrated that novice traders and investors overconfidently trade beyond their skill level." Not this is something most of you don't already know about, but I think this says a lot about ego and its uselessness. Is there some empirical evidence for this? Is it beneficial to have someone keep you "in-check" so to speak or do the markets eventually humble all those who think they are better than they actually are? The irony is that a good confidence level requires a balance of positive/negative self-perception. Mike
All I know is that the successful traders are usually the quiet ones, who attribute their successes to being lucky. It's the ones who talk endlessly about their trades that I avoid. Being humble in the market says a lot.
The market can never humble a skilled operator unless it was out of the blues like a drug company with a failed patent without notice and drops 45% Humbling is an excuse for "gamblers" , basically when you are being humbled it usually means your bets were not in check and you were over betting (emotions). For example, if Michael jordan came up to you and talked trash to you on how he is better then you, he can talk all day and will never be humbled by you no matter how big of a braggard he is, he just won't lose to YOU, Emotion does not play in his playing level. When emotion acts in your actions (big head) who acts on intution, that is when you start making bigger then usual bets, bad bets, that is when people get humbled. A skilled operator has 0 emotions only if statements. Enjoy.
You get to being "ironic" about "confidence" by leaping around the lilly pads in your pond along a path that could have been much more self enlightening. Someday you may be even more startled, if you become aware of how a bright and shining light can quickly evaporate the contemporary support system in which you live. Skillful performance is a consequence. To attain THAT consequence using the personal endowments and equpment any person has, is not by accident but is supremely locked into the realm of purposefulness. There is another thread on the middle class and our globe; people post the consequences they have and the limitedness of their vision about others. Today, as never before, people can have unlimited consequences without ever leaving their homes (no matter where they live). The availability of time compression from a scratch start to excellence, allows anyone to climb aboard a classless enterprise builder on a global basis. In any endeavor imaginable. At this moment of the world, there has never been a greater disparity in what is available to the individual compared to what any individual needs as a support sytem. Skillful performance is a consequence. Today, at this moment, a person can entrain almost anything he needs to achieve almost any consequence he designs. I have just completed a round of four essential contacts, without leaving a series of rooms, where each skillful person in the remote loop fully recognizes that the consequence of mutual understandings, now made, simply changes how business will be done to deal with getting medicines to the needy. Have you compared the velocity (movement) of Rita with the velocity (Movement East) of the coastal strike point of the porjections, lately? The former is slowing and the later is accelerating. Did you notice the watershed in which Rita will traverse is the Mississippi river above N O? A lot of water is going to pass N O heading south.
I use irony as an easy out. Some things sound trivial when taken with a shot of perspective. A "contemporary support system"? Aren't we all a part of this system? This sounds like a diatribe but I could be reading it this way because I am wholly ignorant to people's motives and desires. Would you care to elaborate?
I look at the cartoons. Most are bad but once in a while there's a funny one. I don't read the articles. It gets dumped ASAP along with spam. I noticed I hadn't dumped my e-mail trash and looked at the one for the date of your post and sure enough I found your quote in it. Who writes this stuff anyway? Ever consider that the perspective of the writer isn't a money-making one? At least not for traders. For newsletter sellers it might be a different story. Anyway, here's a funny one.
Hehe, I remember that cartoon. The newsletter is free and often times the stuff they write is worth about as much as it costs, but there are some gems. Anyway, it gives me something to think about in the mornings - like cheesy life lessons with Tony Robbins or something. I can't speculate on whether traders actually write this stuff - it always seems too "3rd person looking on" type of writing to me.
Hey Mike805, Did you catch that big south this weekend. Nice ride. Prelude to this weeks market action?
I went out Tuesday afternoon and that was really fun. I got tied up with other stuff this last weekend so I missed the good stuff. Was going to take the day off tommorrow but I'm getting too interested right now in what will happen tommorrow... Sometimes its soo hard to leave my precious screens...
Yeah sometimes it's hard to squeeze the time. Macking south though kinda like this once in 8 years, 3 consecutive negative 1000 breadth days. Good Luck. BTW Nice Indo surf photo