There are people out again saying that Nov 08 was bottom and we should see market going up from here, because recession will be over by second half of 2009. And, because stock market is 6 -9 months early, it should be bottom. I am not sure what makes them so sure, but isn't this worst recession /D since great D? If you compare last bear market, S&P reached its peak in Sept 2000, and reached final bottom after more than 2 years in Feb 2003. It has been ONLY 15 months since last peak in S&P in Oct 07. What makes these people think that the recession of this magnitude will be over so soon? Just because the market has already fallen 40% means that there is no downside, and economy should start to recover soon?
1) "They" are hoping that the future behaves similar to the past. 2) Ideally, you're not invested in anything that has lost nor will lose 99% of its value.