seems like the short everybody has been

Discussion in 'Trading' started by rowenwood, Feb 4, 2004.

  1. You may not be missing anything - it is you who have done the work and researched the stock and it's fundamentals. It is I who am looking at it strictly from a technical standpoint and from my own personal trading style. (and my own interpretation of my technicals for that matter)

    So from where I'm sitting and judging by my trading style - which is to tend to jump on board a trade that is allready moving in the direction that I am betting on, I wouldn't be on board (long) just yet.

    True enough, I would miss out on some of the profits if it started going up right now and didn't look back. I would just like to see a bit more indication that buyers are moving it up, which right now I don't see. (looks more like a bull - bear cockfight @6 to me right now and the bulls do not seem to have the upperhand yet)

    Looking at a weekly chart as well and I see on average more volume on red bars than green. I'd like to see this reversed in order to believe that it's likely going to go up. This is not to say that it is not going to go up. Anything can happen at anytime. I'd just like to see some more technical signs of it.

    A decent green candle on the daily with a close above 6.30 would be such a sign if it happened tomorrow or friday. (or next week even)
    #21     Feb 5, 2004
  2. it doesn't have that .30 gain I should sell my shares or just wait so long as it doesn't go much lower? I usually set my stop at ten percent down.

    There was a 630,000-700,000 volume day which saw a .23 gain on monday; what about this?

    and thanks illiquid

    i normally do buy into a position over a period of a week or two as a stock moves up or down. My current position is utilizing 70-80% margin leaving just a little more room than necessary to stave off a margin call if my portfolio value dips 10%, which is my stop.

    another thing about the stock is that they company has large cap partners and great technology. This stock pick is a result of sortig through all the 4-8 priced biotechs. I spent last weekend sorting through them all. I've never encountered a company with so many great qualities. Upon discovery I was overwhelmed with joy. I'm probably married to this sotck for these reasons but I'm often quick to divorce as well, and forgive the puns.

    My time frame for the development of my target price of CRXA is 6 months, give or take a few.
    #22     Feb 5, 2004
  3. I'm not saying that I would get out - all I'm saying is that *I* would not yet have entered based on the way I trade.

    If it bases here around 6 ish and the bulls get the upperhand then you might very well have a sweet entry. There may be buyers looking to get in here that missed the last bottom and there could be a squeeze - the longer it holds @6 ish the more likely that scenario could take place.

    Also based on what I think I'm seeing - this stock could range trade for a while longer.

    I don't know your risk tolerance and I sure as heck don't know what this stock is going to do next. I'm just saying that I'd like to see a bullish candle show up on it soon before I entered long.

    Please don't let me scare you out of what might be a good/even great trade -the market will let you know whether it is or not.
    #23     Feb 5, 2004
  4. on monday there was a 50% above average volume which is indicative of a rally, and the day saw a .23 gain. I too sometimes look for the green candle, and when I'm prudent. I learned to do this about three months ago. Anyway, if you will explain the monday activity to me as far as, does it form an indication to you.

    as far as risk tolerance I have a lot. I'm up nearly 90% since I started trading last july. I'm after 300% up in one year so that later this year or next I can acquire my first real property investment.
    #24     Feb 5, 2004

  5. (looks more like a bull - bear cockfight @6 to me right now and the bulls do not seem to have the upperhand yet)

    Monday and tuesday, true enough had green day volume - but looking at the other days from last week I wouldn't call it earth shaking.

    I have no interest in this stock whatsoever, but it sounds to me like all in all you have been trading very well :) I hope it goes to the moon for you - I really do!

    All I'm saying is that I like to see some movement in my desired direction before I board the train.(I guess some people do - some don't) The 2-04-04 candle didn't show me that - although the selling volume was lighter which could be a good sign for your position.
    #25     Feb 5, 2004
  6. I agree. Last week was quite rocky. I'll probably just wait through this bear market even if the stock tests the next support level. The bear market will probably be mostly finished by the end of next week?

    thanks for the conversation, this is the most linear conversation I've ever had via elitetrader.

    our methodologies seem very similar, though I take it you don't invest in unprofitable small cap biotech companies. If I had a lot of money on the line I wouldn't either, maybe.
    #26     Feb 5, 2004
  7. I have no interest in this stock whatsoever might actually be a lie on my got me looking at it now.

    All I know is that I have had to dig plenty of arrows out of my back trying to be a pioneer - as a result of all those arrows, more often than not I now attempt to time my entries based on the wagon train showing some pretty clear signs of moving in my desired trade direction, and even so I sometimes still have to dig the arrows out of my back - but it seems to be fewer in the long run :D

    re: thanks for the conversation and exchange of ideas: The pleasure has been mine as well, although we might have been on the wrong thread for what the heck.

    I'm just a little piker. I don't have a lot of cash in my trading account....but I'm a far cry from being broke.(my trading account aint my only account:) but enough about that) To me a chart is a chart. I like the minies for three reasons - 1. they move and 2. my trading account is less than 25k-NQ doesn't have pdt rule - and 3. I am very familiar with them.

    I trade only the nas100 emini (NQ) - if nothing changes there - it's likely the only thing I'll trade for a long time.

    Also, my living expenses are very low - which helps me out a lot. But if asked, I'll be more than happy to tell anyone that I'm not making any money and I'm always getting broker. What can I say, I come from a long line of farmers :D so that's the answer that anyone that asks is likely ever gonna get. But I suppose I'm doing ok - my tires aint slicks.

    My friends sometimes ask, "hows the trading going?" I usually say something along the lines of, "it's tough as hell" and we go on being friends and they go on to work and I go on and trade and we both go on eating.
    #27     Feb 5, 2004
  8. here are my favorite 4 biotechs selling between 4 and 8 out of the 308 biotech companies.

    22/28 million shares floating
    7.8 price per share/ 16.5 target
    2 phase 3 drug trials
    big partners

    15.9/ 33 million shares floating
    7.44 price per share/ 9.4 target
    2 phase 3 drug trials

    2 fda approved products

    28/28.88 million shares floating
    4 price per share/ 9 target
    2 phase 3 drug trials
    large cap investor

    45/55 million shares floating
    5.9 price per share/ 10.5 target price
    5 phase 3 drug trials
    large cap investor
    3 fda approved drugs

    none have hit their one year target prices. All have buy recomendations (i think all do).

    And all except depo have large cap investors.
    #28     Feb 5, 2004
  9. Biotechs can sometimes pay off very well - but they can also sometimes be a wild ride. I've scoped a few out before but never been a big player. (but for that matter I've never been a big player)

    I played AMGN and HGSI (small share lots) a few times a few years ago - does that count? :)

    If you're up 90% since July and you only started trading in July then obviously your are doing something right - continue on.

    It seems that we both have methods that work when we work them with discipline. But I doubt that small cap bios will ever be my cup of tea.

    Best regards,

    #29     Feb 5, 2004
  10. In reply to your earlier post about arbitrarily selling short, top-picking, etc., vs your statement of "Going with the Trend isn't much better than an arbitrary bet if one's stops are completely out of line with what one expects on the reward side . . .

    I would tend to disagree, only because so many people allow their EGOS to get in the way of observing, following, and respecting the trend. The trend of a market is incredibly key. In fact, it is a statement that cannot be overstated or over-emphasized.

    If I put on a longside trade in a well defined uptrend, the odds are certainly in my favor of making money, let alone giving me a defined point for an exit strategy should the trade work against me since I know where my sell-stop is. Trading counter to the trend does not allow for this type of luxury or opportunity since a market that is constantly making new highs not only is a market that will statistically defeat the short-seller or top-picker but also does not allow one to use buy-stops in a prudent or judicial manner. There is no well-defined point or channel line in the sky that one can use as a stop. This is what makes trading counter to a well defined trend so arbitrary, in my opinion.
    #30     Feb 5, 2004