seems like the short everybody has been

Discussion in 'Trading' started by rowenwood, Feb 4, 2004.

  1. To each his own, but I wouldn't consider 2.5% off the top a buyable correction (especially after this run).
    #11     Feb 4, 2004
  2. The point that I was trying to make earlier, (one that has now been basically miscast), is WHERE IS THE "METHODOLOGY" behind some of these "Top-Pickers" who now claim that they have covered their shorts into today's weakness, pounding their chest with glee, just because the IWM is having a very weak day and down 2.5% on the day?

    Seems to me there is no rhyme or reason behind such a trade.
    It is being covered in an arbitrary manner, just as it was put on in an arbitrary manner. No method or system to get into the trade . . . No method or system that tells you to cover.

    Purely arbitrary.
    And to this, we are suppose to applaud the effort?
    I think not.
    #12     Feb 4, 2004
  3. surely you've explained your methodology, but if you will do me the honor of explaining your methodology I will in turn be grateful.

    Obviously most of the supposed, purported top pickers are full of shit.

    Some of these entities seem to be ignoring investing in the bull market, only waiting for corrections.

    The NASDAQ composite is down approximately 6.5%!
    #13     Feb 4, 2004
  4. What's arbitrary about selling short when you feel that recent longs have been buying purely on momentum, and that once that momentum shifted the selloff would occur fast and hard? As long as your stops are reasonable vs what you expect the selloff's minimum target to be, one can try to call a top multiple times and still come out ahead, even if he or she sounds like an idiot when it seems like a new high is made every day. Going "with the trend" isn't much better than an arbitrary bet if one's stops are completely out of line with what one expects on the reward side.

    Somehow it sounds like those who've been long for the ride and who've recently sold to protect their profits are to be lauded, while others who may have shorted a bit early but who are now short from much higher levels are just "lucky" -- no difference in my view :)
    #14     Feb 4, 2004
  5. In turn, I think lots of the bulls on these boards are equally flaky, for hardly any ever put a figure as to when they would be stopped out, for fear of looking dumb when the market resumed its upmove after leaving them behind -- one can crow about "100% upside to go" without ever having to be held accountable. Shorts in reverse, if you ask me :)
    #15     Feb 4, 2004
  6. a beginer or, and that I make mistakes every month. In fact I was hoping that one of the professional traders that reads this post will be kind enough to look at a ceratin chart CRXA and tell me what they think of it.

    The company has all the qualities of a speculative winner.

    45/55 million share floating
    3 products FDA approved
    will be profitbale in 2005
    has 5 phase 3 candidates (a huge amount)
    a one year target price of 10.5
    52 week high is 9.70
    #16     Feb 4, 2004
  7. swimmus


    While most on this board are much much more advance than I am, I will always covering at least the majority of my shorts on a day like today based upon past experience. In the past, I have held on large down days just to watch the market open open much higher and wipe out a considerable profit. I am not a top picker nor am i short but anyone who covered at least some of their shorts are just being smart imo.

    Not trying to step on any toes, just stating "my methodology"

    Peace and happy selling (or buying)
    #17     Feb 4, 2004
  8. Hi rowenwood,

    I'm a student as well and forever will be :)
    Just looking at this stock on my daily chart - right now the price is below the 200 period moving average and it's also below the 20 period moving average.

    It could be setting up to re- test some of the lows below 5.50 and maybe even 5.22. There was resistance in december around this 6 dollar area and maybe it is now becoming support.

    I believe I'd wait to see if price crossed up over the 20ma on some decent volume before I bought it. (12-31-03 comes to mind)

    Just my .02 cents. However, anything can happen at anytime = place your bets - place your stops - and target - and you just might make some bux. At any rate good luck with it.

    Best regards,

    #18     Feb 5, 2004
  9. at a purchase price of 6.1. Maybe I should wait to see if it at least closes the week above 6.1. I have complete faith in this stock, it has all the good qualities which is also why I cannot understand its chart very well. What am I missing?

    and thanks plumlazy

    I understand support, resistance, and trend lines, but what else is there in the three and one year CRXA charts that I can use to help me predict the near future movements of this stock? Maybe, and hopefully, once this bear market phase is over CRXA will skyrocket again. So is this correction over yet? It seems midway through?
    #19     Feb 5, 2004
  10. If you're betting on the fundamentals of this company, then a lower price should be seen as a gift to add to your position -- I would take be taking advantage of any technical-based selling (support being broken at 5.20 for example) to buy more.

    If buying a broken chart seems scary, then you might want to rethink your reasons for buying (do you really have faith in this company's prospects/products) and consider the time-frame in which the "story" would need to develop (may be much longer than you bargained for). Think it over, and if you realize you've actually pulled the trigger because of some kind of chart pattern, then find the price where that pattern will be "broken" and set your hard stop here and now -- don't become an investor after the fact. But depending on the angle, one's stop-loss point is often another's entry. JMO, good luck!
    #20     Feb 5, 2004