Don't even think about quiting your day job. Even if you make more in one of these options than your real job it won't last until you get a good understanding of price action as Handle123 stated plus all the other advice given. Psychology of trading destroys. The pressure of paying bills from money you are trying to make in the market is like oil and water, they DO NOT mix.
On the one hand, you're falling prey to the same things that we all falll for entering the business - searching for the Holy Grail. And using computers to do so. And thinking you're the first one to come up with this grand idea... Can you backtest your psychology? Can you backtest your emotional response to market activity? The highs... The lows.... The churn... To the fact that your backtest results and reality are magnitudes apart? Can your backtesting tell the difference between real and spurious correlations? Can your backtesting tell the difference between real and temporary "patterns"? Can you handle the inevitable shortening of your timeframe as you silently evolve from reacting to trying to predict price changes?
Easy to say hard to do. A backtested strategy does not guaratee future results. It's not thatcut and dry.
technically, you know the mechanics of how markets operate, I think that's only one aspect of trading.
Check out Dom993 , Acary, Kut2k and others over in the strategy design area if you care to spend a little time reading on this site. Good luck.
Oh Jack. He's holds two Masters degrees. Masters in Obfuscation and Masters in Bullsh*t. I seriously don't get why a person would spend so much time fabricating nonsense. It's a waste of time.
Yes, there is a different set of questions I need to answer for which I haven't found any information. Questions such as How do I know whether this model, which is losing, is simply undergoing expected losses at the moment or suffering from systemic changes in the market, rendering it obsolete?
you seem numerically bent. my advice - come up with strategies based on stats, technicals etc. backtest them and trade at least 5 strats together in a portfolio. You will be better than 90% of people on this website, might still not make money however if all your 5+ strategies suffer from overfitting - however just diversifying over more strategies is a superior way than trading or trying to perfect any one strategy. The whole process will take around 1.5 years of hard work - around 8 hrs per day - includes software selection, getting acquainted with software, getting acquanited with markets and proper market selection, proper strategy idea selection (like MR, momentum, pairs etc), designing tests on these strategies and finally making portfolio....I did all this took me roughly 1.5-2 years to sort everything out. Then I stumbled because I didn't execute my strategies as I designed them. Took me 10 more months to build proper systems so that I can execute flawlessly, without fail. Its a long process my friend. Cheers Edit: My experience building semi-automated/fully-automated intraday systems for futures
if the hypothesis worked ,you being right next to it , would have seen it, you need to learn to trade first, it might be a pyschological variable that isn't in your computer