Seeing the Trend

while we are at it, let's include touch, taste, and smell. we see the downward spike, we feel a pinch in the arm. Then a foul odor starts filling the room while you get this bitter metallic taste in your mouth.

 

And in a long range, where any trend following indicator is returning consistent small losers, it laughs at you.

 

i went to a restaurant like that once..

 

how about the current hindsight market he's showing us?

 

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Thanks,T Trader;
always like trend study, speaking generally. Nice colors =green up, red down... Not that i would call a shallow, red retracement a trend change. But each to his own;
takes all kinds to make a market.

I see it.

 

what does the color mean? red is bear, blue is bull, and cyan is range?

 

I wish I understood how you can see trend or find it. I don't really understand how this works, starting 1st year of university after the summer studying economics and mathematics.

 

"Learning how to draw trendlines is pretty straight forward. A trend-line is a line drawn between at least two points on a stock chart where price has previously found support or resistance. The more touches a T/L has the better, as this shows confirmation of its value."

Of course seeing the trend is just one part of trading. Next you need to find an indicator that actually predicts the future BEFORE it happens.

These type of of indicators don't come built into a charting program, which is why many here are against indicators, however, a couple of them do exist. The other indicators just look good in hindsight since they show what happened in the past.

 

predictive indicators all have 1 major flaw - the degree of the prediction direction.

I have worked on these for years - it is very tough. You can call a turn in the market ahead of time but how big will that turn be? Will it be a 1% drop or a 3% drop? Without a magnitude attached it is hard to trade them. Its the "small turns" that chew up a trading system - too many of those and it eats away at the big winners.

Even the big winners that happen can appear almost identical to the small losers that happen in a fake out move - only to continue in the turn direction. Meaning if you looked at both of them (without seeing the rest of the chart) you would be hard pressed to tell the difference or which one would work.

If someone could simply predict the magnitude problem for me I would be rich

 

I don't think you have to predict magnitude, but you have to be able to stay on board until a trend is done. If you can do that without getting out too soon, you will be fine.