sector rotation strategy

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by emk662, Apr 23, 2004.

  1. agrau

    agrau

    Sectors as of GICS
    • Energy
    • Materials
    • Industrials
    • Consumer Discretionary
    • Consumer Staples
    • Health Care
    • Financials
    • Information Technology
    • Telecommunication Services
    • Utilities

    To not to pollute this thread with large copies from other sources, here's a more complete overview on GICS http://www.users.bigpond.com/prominex/Download/Gics.htm
     
    #31     Apr 25, 2004
  2. Banjo

    Banjo

    #32     Apr 25, 2004
  3. I understand that but you can improve returns by going further by picking stocks. Which again I do on technicals only not on fundamentals. I buy stocks breaking out to all time high only from sectors doing well.
    Also in some sector for example the music and video stores the sector did exceedingly well thanks to one single stock NFLX while all others were going down or consolidating so stock selection is important. Similarly in retail sector stock selection can increase your returns significantly.
     
    #33     Apr 25, 2004
  4. Most data provider get their sector classification information from outside companies. The S&P is one such. TC2000 gets its information from Media General Financial Services, which also provides the data to other quote providers.
    http://www.mgfs.com/html/index.shtml
    MGFS places all companies into a 3-digit industry group classification system. The first digit relates to one of nine macroeconomics sector classifications, the second digit has thirty-one classifications of middle-tier business segment groups, and third digit relates to one of 215 distinct business sectors. ( currently they have 239 groups)
    IBD has its own industry classification, which is much better because they subdivide industries much better,( for example most databases have bundled whole host of things under internet but the IBD database treats it differently) but it is not easily available unless you subscribe to one of their higher end institutional product like WONDA which gives you an interactive database of IBD classification.
    If you do to broad a classification then you will not find it so meaningful at the same time if you go too micro then it will defeat the purpose. I also don't now why you want to reinvent the wheel use publicly available database as they have arrived at some consensus on this and ipo get allotted to sector by them, while you will have to do it manually everytime there is a IPo or takeover or delisting.
    One good free source is
    http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/market/top10industries.asp
     
    #34     Apr 25, 2004
  5. DK_

    DK_

    http://www.sectorstalker.com/ is a similar product, less expensive but no 3D charts. It also provides key economic data series for graphing such as nonfarm payroll, housing starts etc.
     
    #35     Apr 25, 2004
  6. agrau

    agrau

    Thanks easyguru, much appreciated. - I re-invent the wheel for several reasons, most promiment being that I am for several reasons tied to my GNU/Linux box. All affordable data provider stick with Micro$oft, so these are no option to me.

    Rolling my own lists isn't a problem anyway - I'll just throw an URL with sector descriptions onto a self-written program and here I go. No big deal.

    Best,
    agrau
     
    #36     Apr 25, 2004

  7. This is really great information Grob. Thank you very much. I'm going to study this thread. It's rich with info. You should write a book.

    Ripple effects: Follow the international markets's affects; then down to national, studying sector movements, and then down to a particular stock.


    Is this a good gist for a strategy for understanding trends? How many monitors will I need for this?

    So basic [?], and now I'll have to do the work.

    Will you post a list of books that will
    give me the info I need to implement this. Nothing superfluous, I need to get the basics down, and then I'll articulate the system over time. Notwithstanding, I'n only interested in being a position trader.

    Start at the top with international market affects?

    If not, then thank you very much because I feel I finally know enough to learn what I need to in order to consistently make money.
     
    #37     Apr 25, 2004
  8. I read the posts here. And it is clear that there is an excellent understanding that the power of considering market sectors is pervasive and provides a superb context for making money.

    I want to respond to the adroit way in which, logically, people have determined that we are looking at a big picture and properly.

    The global picture does really drive the sectors of the US trading markets. Invest the time in skimming business week to see the pictures taken in China. Regard the economic numbers along a few columns.

    People all over the world are intelligent and leading their lives to forward their interests. We are now connected electronically and everyone is empowered to perform on a level playing field.

    The US has stepped aside from the enduring process of iterative refinement (by the numbers and rational reasoning processes) to practice operating from an idealistic black and white viewpoint. As an aged person, I am experiencing living in the most "expensive" decision making period I have ever witnessed. We (the US) will pay the piper for this beyond my time horizon.

    In contrast, there is certainly an alternative taking effect around the globe that has a silver lining. The world is actually very capable of taking care of itself and bettering this situation and doing it rapidly. Global inovation based upon the corporate model will prevail. And that is where market sectors play out.

    At all times various market sectors will step into the limelight to factor the short term opportunities directly into accelerated capital appreciation.

    The world has never seen before the rapidity with which wealth will be created. Contributors here recognize and describe this. I especially emphasize the sectors that supply other sectors that are close to the ultimate consumer.

    There are parts of the world that will be acting as resources for other parts that are going to grow in quality of life beyond belief.

    The US had the opportunity to lead the world's process of "incorporating". The energizing of the globe as a needs delivery system is going to be based on the corporate financial model and financial equities markets throughout the world will take the measure of the wealth building and built.

    A swedish based furiture company allowed Bill Gates to be passed in wealth by creating a delivery system for furniture.

    We as traders need to intercept this opportunity. It is my belief that "creaming the markets" is the way to exceed anything as yet seen it terms of making money and acquiring great wealth for individuals.

    I devote one screen to a display of a map. It is a map of squares(rectilinear shapes) bunched by sectors that are bounded with frames. All squares are colored by a red to green spectrum that shows their daily losses (red), neutral (grey) or gains (green). This is rough and crude and interesting. Background stuff.

    I run quote sheets where leading indicators of price are shown for stocks that exhibit high money velocities. Hot lists. Cross over trading with amounts of money that can not be used in leveraged places where the markets just can't handle the capital.
    Even with hot lists, money has to be "flowed". Flowed at rates dictated by trading block size and cummulative daily volume. It is like an individual's printing machine for printing money.

    The amount of capital available to take out of the market has no real limit and an individual can never affect the market to any extent presently. In the years ahead all of this will be changing by orders of magnitude.

    In this thread it has been pointed out that all of this can be easily systematized for the persent and for the foreseeable future. It is correct to use a ZOOM in approach. I also tenure performers.

    For sectors, focus on conventional sets.

    To cut to the chase (KISS) for now, use several (three) sets of rankings for the sectors. Short term, middle term and longer term. We need to see the rankings change (This is velocity because you have a fixed periodicity of sampling) and to know their rate of change This is acceleration by the same reasoning). You get from this, the operation of the fundamental precept of snthesizing harmonics. (See aluminum and housing construction presently as already pointed out.)

    Use the leader/ lagger risk minimization strategy.

    Use the compound interest formula (See the set of Q's that I recommend everyone work through; this is Q 1). Get it very straight that doing more cycles is much more important than profit per cycle. Cut off the ends of cycles to do this.

    Learn to enter late and leave early in a cycle. Only hold through maximum money velocities. Acceleration from zero is not important compared to the maximum trajectories that occur when price is going through the axis of the cycle. When a stock begins to decelerate the exit is predicated on a switch that occurs as another stock accelerated into the maximum money velocity band.

    Get it straight that you cannot optimize making money from an intuitive point of view. You are not smart enough at this point to deal with exponential functions which is the nature of all natural phenomena. Markets are natural living entities.

    The huge bottom line in markets is that the big players are screwed. Individuals are the ones that make money.

    as time passes and you have a lot of capital, you will experience constraints for moving that capital. There is no difficulty in pulling capital out of an equity and applying it to another and nettiing low seven digits on that one effort in a single money stream of many in the overall accounts.

    What is required is to always have a selection of opportunities.

    The primary function you have to assume, in time, is making cash available for opportunities that you have. Obviously and uniquivicably, the opportunities lay in making continuous and excellent use of sector analysis and universe selection/maintenance (add/delete function).

    I surround the scope and bounds of equities investing with being aware of what is going on in the world. I have nine pairs of mismatched processes (slow(column 1) compared to faster(column 2)). I look at the consequences (column 3) of these pairs not working. I also examine what might be done to solve the consequential problems (column 4). These 36 considerations often point out sector hot spots and opportunities.

    One pair is legal processes (slow) vs inovation (fast); Money and size controls ("making markets"* consequence); use alternatives to legal processes (solution). *We will play here.
     
    #38     Apr 25, 2004