Secrets to success in trading

Don't you see that you have included Direction into another set of unknown factors of the credit spread? So now you trying to predict much more than just trend. You also have to factor whether you sold Prem and bought fair value, but fact remains you do them against trends, more likely to lose.

But I agree Credit Spreads are reasonable way to go, but I only put them on dealing with directional. Get out as soon at they hit makeable targets. And when they don't work out, I just keep them on but have built adjustments pretty fair away waiting for the dead cat bounce.

 

Uncle Buffett's favorite teaser: "don't lose money, and rule #2 is remember rule #1"
trader job is to figure out rule #1.

 

Wow, what a find! You are very fortunate. I'd love to find some charts from that era.

 

but the bull, is more than the shit, be happy

 

you forgot one word:amen

 

a lot of good stuff in what you have explained.
there is a cost with hedging or options.
it may be difficult to see direction because those behind market movements know traders' psychology.
And those who know direction and in the correct position, are convinced by continuous reversal signals that they have to book profit.most reversal signals fail.this takes some time to understand.
The market is not moved by GOD,it is moved by big money operators who know how the small traders think and know how they will react.
If it is moved by man, another man can beat them.in my years of losses this is what i told myself repeatedly.
money is never lost in trading it only shifts to another pocket

 

of course there are no secrets.

there are no secrets in Chinese language.
but you have got to learn the language to understand it.

And,if you want to make a living out of it,you have to become fluent and it may take 5-10 years.
The language of markets are no different
Market movements are public knowledge
do not imagine that you can sit on your back side imbibe the language from an expert.You have to learn and put a lot of effort

 

yes why is that?
because the buy side and the sell side are not trading the same time frame.
both may be right and both will make money.
buy side hourly time frame but the sell side may be on 4hourly or daily or weekly.
that is why you always find buyers and seller at any given time

 

But you only see 1 side as per your previous post.

 

To notice that something has changed, then have the courage to act upon it. Or, even better, that something is about to change. . .