"How can you know if it's obvious?" It's just a question I ask myself before I put on some trades. The answer is you can't for sure, just like everything else. It's just something I like to think about. Part of the creativity of trading. You might think of it as a market that is overextended and ripe for a pull back. Like housing in 2007. Or 2004. Hehe. Happens in all TF's though.
Never a conflict, as I learned to get out and take my profit/loss when things get confused. It has been proven by my results that this is the best way to trade.
Not for me. I also never enter if things are not clear for me. There is a constant flow of new opportunites to trade, so skipping a confused signal is irrelevant for better performance. Confused signals in general lead to worse performance. Not trading is also part of trading.
I usually have in mind an idea or visualization of what the market is supposed to be doing given different TFs. It's all about staying in the moment. One example of an obvious trade is a flag. There's a momentum bar and then it consolidates. If it consolidates too long, it's probably going to fail in some way. It needs to take out weak hands. Otherwise we could all make money from flags. The few times they do work, they become very strong patterns. That's what keeps traders chasing momentum.
After a long trend, it's tempting to try to pick a top or bottom. Often, the market will pull back for a day or two. So you have to know that it's just too tempting not to jump onto this reversal, thinking the bottom or top is in and boy am I smart. When it fails it traps lots of traders. After that you can get real panic, as it seems there is never going to be a bottom or top ever again. Which is obviously not true, but emotion has taken over. See the recent action since Friday 5/18 in the USD.
I will add my input here and hope its valuable to some other trader. I am not sure what the key(s) to success in trading is. I have been part time trading and studying it (off and on) for about 6 years now. And I am still not profitable. But I do know I will be consistently profitable soon. From my experiences I believe the key to success is: 1. Do not trade live until you prove it in demo. Save your cash. Treat trading like a business. 2. Spend time learning your craft. Trading is no different then any other professional degree. Talk to gurus and even hire a mentor. 3. Trade daily. I make it a goal to take a trade everyday when I can, even though I work full time. 4. Enjoy the journey. Ask valuable questions. 5. Manage risk. I am not saying to avoid a lost, I am saying avoid stupid/mistakes losses. Don't blow all your cash flow learning to trade. 6. Just stare at the chart and look for opportunities. Take notes Just my opinions. I am still on this journey.