Well..... An integral part of my core system (which of course has three parts to it), is a fourth parameter for taking account of the changing types of markets that come along. I was doing a quick & dirty backtest last night using TOS charts, applying my default system to a new instrument, preparatory to some more detailed work, where when I started out, with said fourth parameter disabled, P&L came in at minus 3k. Enabling it to the default value got me to something like 10k. Tweaking it around (curve-fitting? Maybe. Further testing will of course let me know.) got that number up to 14k. In my experience, you have to take account of the type of market you're in, and that goes beyond just volatility, although volatility is certainly a major part of it. Point being that the way people trade depends on the overall market environment. Long term, we are in a market that resembles 1998, it's true. That's not a permanent condition though.
'Surprise', either work harder and smarter and find something that works consistently or accept the fact that there are others who have a higher understanding of how markets operate.
When I played Texas Hold em' I made it to the intermediate level...but there was always somebody better...(some players even started avoiding me) In Trading if one has an edge...be it an intermediate edge...they can make some money.. ES
OK, let's get back to the key concepts presented in your original post: Can you provide some real-life examples where you or someone you know... ...identified and reacted to the behaviour of others to extract a profit from the market? ...was correct in direction and premise on a trade, but ended up donating to the market? ...thought about the person on the other side of your/their trade and profited from that thought? I'm really curious about this, because I'm a pure technical trader who couldn't care less about who bought a contract from me or sold a contract to me. I'm just playing the part of the casino in a game of probabilities and looking to profit from an edge in my favor.
who said that this or these 'patterns' would be so clear so that ANYONE and EVERYONE will be able to see and profit? You said they can't possibly exist and I'm saying they DO but require extensive research, application and a willingness to keep trying. Most give up before being able to be in a position of reaching higher levels of understanding.
NoDoji, Quote of the day...(can I use this?) ES I'm just playing the part of the casino in a game of probabilities and looking to profit from an edge in my favor.
You are repeating that you do not recognize your dilemma. You are stuck. The static clear pattern is R2R 2B 2R for short and B2B 2R 2B for long. as you see it is one pattern expressing an ordr of events simply using B for balck and R for red on any display that shows a color coded bar display where either of the two translation cases for adjacent bars is occurring. Translation for black bar is HH's and HL's. For the red bar case the translation is LL's and LH's. There are 8 other adjacent cases whereby the bars are merged into one bar equivalent. All fractals nest and are interlocked using the pattern. Thus the theme is order of events which emerges as one and only one pattern. Since the order of events is certain and a binary vector this demands that all markets are defined by finite mathematics. and that only deductive reasoning may be applied and inductive reasoning is the wrong mathematical application. Volume precedes price and all price turns occur at volume extremes known as peaks and troughs. For the three moves of the pattern there are 4 peaks and troughs always in the following order of events: Peak, trough, peak trough, peak>>peak, trough, peak, trough, peak. the ending and beginning peaks are common events to consecutive patterns. Long and short patterns alternate. Go through the process of breaking your dilemma by drawing the alternatin patterns on a chart until you can do it unconsciously.