Discussion in 'Forex' started by martingalaj, Sep 22, 2011.
i think we retake crash of 2008
next days i try to give my justification
for what reasons ???
how many crashes did you predict correcty ???
i hope for every new crash, so long it dosnt kill the worl economics and forces the countries to world war III.
Crashes are very healthy for the markets, after that always comes an upswing.
Currently..looking like head and shoulders accured in the Dow 30 and S&P 500 and Bear Flag is in Progress, breaking down now!
from top 2008 (before crash)
sp and dow today are in the same level (max up was 11%)
just nasdaq reach more gains
but usd down at today
-17% vs chf
-28% vs jpy
so stocks in chf and jpy terms NEVER recover level of 2008
i think is very probably we see max level of stocks and after some consolidation 1 or 2 months more retake big down
true we see second shouldar from 09-20 at today
i dont have that info but would be very interesting see index of sp+dow+nasdaq to determinate neck of s-h-s formation
level of start of crash is to me:
minimum of sp and dow and nasdaq if broke that level crash start again
minimun was 08.08.2011 in 3 instruments
next days very bullish stocks
aud touch weekly sup
jpy and usd probably retrace
so this week is countertrend to me (bullish)
aud ,nzd and cad rise against usd
just eur and gbp down a bit
in conclusion the drop of usd was the reason of stocks us up (remember just nasdaq raise 11% in .... usd)
after crash 2008 , sotcks rise 2009-2010 and part of 2011
is very probably to me at least see important correction or 2 wave of crash
sorry i try to say the down of usd explain gains in % of stocks
if usd had not fallen then stocks NEVER recover levels of august 2008 (before crash september-october-nov-dec of 2008)
my english is bad sorry
the idea is simple , stocks of us technically after 3 years of rise cant return at 2008 levels before crash
so, thats it
aj target optimistic (NO CRASH just correction)
57.50 -59 level (more than 1500 pips of down) today quote 74.67
crash stage ...... aj broke lowest value 2008 55.20 and go to.....
optimistic dow 7600 -7700 level
see down of commodities and gold
gold down 20%!!! from 1920 to 1532 in 17 days!!
rise of usd explain part of this movement
usd rise 8% average against majors
september is savage!
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