Suddenly now you change your context from "the real estate market in Toronto is not declining in price. Condos are going up in price" to "long term owners don't have a problem". Nice attempt at moving the goal posts. The bottom line is that a significant correct in the GTA market has arrived. Sales and prices are down greatly across all real estate categories in the GTA over the past 12 months. The reality is that real estate market in Toronto currently resembles a perfect storm of many underlying issues colliding to create a tremendous structural market correction. As outlined in many articles, these factors include: A significant tightening in bank mortgage lending standards. A great reduction in foreign purchasing since Ontario introduced a 15% tax on those purchases. A private (sub-prime) mortgage market representing over 10% of mortgages held in the GTA. A significant number of condos sitting unoccupied. Financial institutions pulling out of financing new construction. A job market focused on finance which will be the most impacted employment sector from a Canadian real estate correction. The Toronto real estate market strongly resembles Miami in 2007. There is going to be a lot of pain in the upcoming correction which will be deeper than most homeowners realize. However you are correct that long-term homeowners with stable bank mortgages should not have a problem (same as in the U.S. from 2007 to 2012) - but those who need to sell or cannot fund their payments are facing a world of hurt. New construction, of course, is heavily leveraged with debt and will be facing a wave of bankruptcies and abandoned projects. Beyond the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) cheerleaders who are merely "talking their book" (quoted in your one article) - you can find no organization or financial media with a positive outlook regarding the GTA real estate market.
I have a Washington State Real Estate Salesperson License. I have attended several meetings sponsored by financial planning and loan originators. In one presentation, about a year and a half ago, the Canadian real estate market was mentioned. Some of the key drivers that were discussed were Chinese emigration influence and buying habits on real estate prices, Canada's debt to GDP ratio, and high consumer debt ratios. The presenter concluded that liquidity concerns in China could end up affecting Canada through less Chinese demand for real estate. In addition, should the global economy go into recession, Canada with its high debt load could experience a particularly hard landing. I hope this show of brinkmanship in trade negotiations by Trump is in fact brinksmanship. Should these tariffs be implemented for a long enough period, prices for goods and services will rise and demand will drop. Less demand means less need for employees and the global economy starts a negative feedback loop down. In addition, should the U.S. be deemed a unreliable trade partner, the affected countries may look to start other relations or do without. Furthermore, citizens in affected countries may start to avoid U.S. goods as nationalistic pride sets in. The ensuing reduction of global economic activity caused by trade dislocations and national pride will hurt heavy resource exporting countries such as Canada. Trudeau may have made a mistake by assaulting(?) Trump with his apparently very firm handshake. Trump may look to replace Canadian resources for Russian resources over a perceived personal slight. In addition, Trudeau political affiliations may also play a significant part in Trump's willingness to do business with Canada. Canada is a beautiful country made up by unusually caring and friendly people, particularly in British Columbia and Alberta. I sincerely hope things can be worked out between Trudeau and Trump. I believe if Trudeau acted inapropiately towards Trump, he should apologize and attempt to initiate a new round of trade negotiations. If the history of the Trump Presidency is any guide, Trump will likely agree to another meeting. Many people's jobs on both sides of the border probably depend on the successful outcome of a future trade meeting between Trump and Trudeau.
My understanding is that DC election results are really lopsided as in 90% plus Democrat. Election results will not likely be changed by bringing in a few Republicans. I wonder if the local politicians and residents are in a drug induced "chemo fog". The poor and minorities have been suckered by the "rich people, greedy companies, and the white racists are screwing you" narrative. If one sincerely buys into this narrative, how can they ever be happy when, if they want a job, it is likely through a "greedy" company managed by a "racist" and "rich" white person? If these people elect to not participate in the labor force, they are not happy either because of economic hardship. Slavery of the mind is so incidious. No physical chains needed. These slaves fulfill their purpose when they vote for their masters. At least they are fed, housed, and have their medical needs met to a degree by their owners through welfare, food stamps, and section 8. Education and security as measured by school performance statistics and crime rates, not so much. Some taxpayers may understandably object to this system. I have several black friends and have employed a significant number of black people for manual labor. My black friends tend to value friendship more than others and tend to perform manual labor better than others. Some of my black friends can compete in international competitions involving intelligence, such as chess tournaments. I hope to see more opportunities come their way, not giveaways. We need to make inroads in illegal drug use in this country before any meaningful change will happen. We have the law enforcement to do this, but political will on both sides seems to be lacking. Do our politicians fear blacks taking away white jobs? A strong economy and a shortage of labor may be another key to getting more minorities to reach their potential in our labor force, and not wasting away on welfare rolls. The Democratic Party appears to be fine with leaving the system in place unchanged while they promote open borders to bring more people in. The Radical Left says Trump does not care about illegal immigrants while we allow, perhaps 30% of our own citizen lives to be harshly affected in some way, directly or indirectly, by substance abuse related violence, theft, health issues, and emotional stress. The substance abuse issue has gone beyond national emergency thresholds for many years. The Radical Left goes crazy over a few dozen school shooting deaths versus hundreds of thousands of direct and indirect substance abuse deaths per year that also effect children. I hope we get our national priorities straight and focus on the big problems together, without undue partisanship for a better place for us all to live.
No change in narrative you are wrong, several segments of the Toronto market are up in price. This was a front page article recently : https://www.thestar.com/business/20...-gtas-new-home-market-even-as-sales-drop.html 25% increase in condo prices across the board. Yet you want to push the narrative that there is a crash. Overdone rhetoric not based on reality, it's your emotions in play here. There are basically no unoccupied condos in Toronto, the demand for housing here is massive. You could not have got this more wrong yet you plow ahead with that giant ego of yours "educating" people on something you know almost nothing about. Americans have a bad habit of assuming that everything you went through in 2008/2009 has to happen in Canada. Not at all likely, we have a vastly different environment then the US on many levels. Mortgages in Canada are far more conservative in nature then the US at that time. Lack of new construction projects and the flying rental market are positives to long term price of ownership in Toronto and area. It might not be perfect for the entire community, but those who own already and aren't leveraged at all are sitting on a great investment that never fails them. Long term, my investment in a home in Toronto will likely outperform yours in North Carolina. Even at today's prices. So I have a hard time caring about your premise, Americans have been bitching about Canadian real estate for many years and they've got it wrong every single time.
Many Americans have badly understood Canadian real estate and Canadian banks for 20 years. If we get a global recession, as we did in 2008/2009, it will hurt all asset classes. However, as we saw before a lot of US real estate is even more prone to correction then Canada. Toronto real estate in 2008/2009 weathered the chaos better then almost all asset classes out there.
So another article pushing the quotes from TREB and BILD which are merely talking their book. They never note the only reason the average new condo price in Toronto is up despite a large drop in sales -- is because only the high-end condo's over $1.5M are selling (or not being dropped in building projects). As noted in the article "Condo sales were also down year over year and year to date, by 47 per cent and 57 per cent, respectively." To get a perspective on TREB look no further than this post - https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...ck-dose-of-reality.322017/page-4#post-4675481
Yes -- with Apple closing to open a development center office here, and many surveys listing Raleigh, NC as the top location for Amazon HQ2 -- the housing market will only continue to grow & increase in price. Over 100 people move to the area each day to work for Tech companies. Handling growth is our biggest problem. The housing prices around Research Triangle Park NC have consistently grown in a non-bubble manner over the past 60 years. This is not a bubble market with mass speculation, high debt, and structural issues like Miami or Vegas in 2007... or Toronto in 2018.