I agree that price action is at a critical juncture. No one can know for sure whether it's a breakdown from wedge or bounce back up. Regarding sentiment, I disagree the public is bullish on gold. Recent public opinion on gold (11/8/13) shows them neutral side of bearish (46% bullish). COT report small spec also shows them near neutral positioning in gold futures, which is at/near multi-year lows. But, that has been the case for 7 months since the April crash in gold. For now I see gold continuing to be stuck in a range until maybe December FOMC meeting decision.
Gold bears are having a good time today. It's down -$16 @ $1265 now. Days like these have 2 words come to mind: "Barbarous Relic."
more downside most likely expected the coming days http://localsfoolsgold.blogspot.be/2013/11/alea-iacta-est-die-has-been-cast.html
and some more info:http://localsfoolsgold.blogspot.be/2013/11/my-views-on-markets-and-details-on.html
nope it's my own, just don't feel like totally rewriting or copying the whole stuff ... a link just works easier ...
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304243904579195631017906684 ECB's Praet: All Options on Table Central Bank Could Adopt Negative Deposit Rate, Asset Purchases If Needed Nov. 13, 2013 9:22 a.m. ET FRANKFURTâThe European Central Bank could adopt negative interest rates or purchase assets from banks if needed to lift inflation closer to its target, a top ECB official said, rebutting concerns that the central bank is running out of tools or is unwilling to use them. "If our mandate is at risk we are going to take all the measures that we think we should take to fulfill that mandate. That's a very clear signal," ECB executive board member Peter Praet said in an interview Tuesday with The Wall Street Journal. Annual inflation in the euro zone slowed to 0.7% in October , far below the central bank's target of just below 2% over the medium term. He didn't rule out what some analysts see as the strongest, and most controversial, option: purchases of assets from banks to reduce borrowing costs in the private sector. "The balance-sheet capacity of the central bank can also be used," said Mr. Praet, whose views carry added weight as he also heads the ECB's powerful economics division. "This includes outright purchases that any central bank can do." Additional stimulus from the ECB isn't needed right now, Mr. Praet signaled, noting that inflation risks for the euro zone as a whole are balanced after last week's unexpected ECB interest-rate cut. On Thursday the central bank reduced its key lending rate to 0.25% , a record low. The move came days after the October inflation report fanned fears that the euro zone may slip into a period of excessively low inflation or, in parts of the currency bloc, persistent consumer-price declines known as deflation. This cripples economic activity by damping wages and profits and hampering efforts by the private sector and governments to reduce debt. Countries hit hardest by the euro debt crisis including Ireland, Greece, Cyprus and Spain have inflation rates of zero or lower. The ECB could do more if necessary, Mr. Praet said. "On standard measures, interest rates, we still have room and that would also include the deposit facility," he said. The central bank's deposit rate has been set at zero for several months. Making it negative would effectively levy a fee on commercial banks that park funds at the ECB. That would be aimed at spurring bank lending to the private sector, boosting growth and inflation. However, one risk is that a negative deposit rate would weigh on bank profits. Another option is to make more cash available to financial institutions, as it has in the past with cheap, long-term loans, known as LTROs, Mr. Praet said. The ECB has so far resisted large-scale asset purchases as a means to boost growth. The Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan 8301.TO -2.68% have used this tool, known as quantitative easing, aggressively to spur lending and keep inflation from falling too low, buying large swaths of government and private debt. The ECB purchased safe bank bonds and government bonds at the height of the global financial crisis and the euro debt crisis, but in small amounts compared with other major central banks. The policy is deeply unpopular in Germany, where long-standing fears of inflation spur doubts about easy-money policies. Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann opposed the ECB's decision last year to create a government bond-purchase program even though the facility, which hasn't even been used, has been widely credited with helping resolve the bloc's debt crisis. The ECB's charter forbids it from financing governments. The ECB must respect its legal constraints, Mr. Praet said, however its rules "do not exclude that you intervene in the markets outright." Mr. Weidmann was in the minority of ECB officials who opposed last week's rate reduction, preferring to wait another month to gain more information on the inflation outlook. This has led to some concern that if the ECB can't unanimously agree on a cut to its key lending rate, reaching consensus on more outside-the-box monetary policies will prove tricky. "For some decisions it's easier than others" to gain consensus, Mr. Praet said. "One thing is clear: the governing council has been able to decide. That's really the message." The need for more aggressive stimulus is increasingly being debated by economists and investors. Economists at BNP Paribas BNP.FR -0.43% argue the ECB should buy â¬50 billion ($67.18 billion) per month of government bonds of euro-zone countries and start doing so "the sooner the better." Still it places the odds at under 50-50 "probably by a wide margin" in part because of likely resistance from the ECB's conservative wing. Mr. Praet rejected fears, particularly in Germany, that low ECB interest rates harm savers by reducing the interest rate they earn on deposits. Low interest rates tend to favor borrowers over savers. "Creditors and debtors always have an interest in a stable anchor, which is price stability in the medium term," Mr. Praet said. "The action to reduce uncertainty is good for the climate for savers." âTodd Buell and Christopher Lawton contributed to this article. Write to Brian Blackstone at brian.blackstone@wsj.com â¢
Yellen's Remarks Released Early, Says "Fed has More Work To Do' Assuring More Dovishness http://www.zerohedge.com/node/481389