Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by blakpacman, Sep 12, 2013.
Historically September is strong, but not this year so far.
I'm reminded of the old Jake Bernstein late night infomercials telling you that you simply buy on this date and sell on that date to make an "easy" seasonal tendency profit ... not.
1) Statistics can be "deceiving".
2) You have to be cognizant of the entire data sample, not just the average. :eek:
3) The intra-month volatility can shake you out of "good" positions.
4) According to the bar-data; November, December AND January, combined, might be the real "high" probability and "high" magnitude trade. We'll see.
5) Gold doesn't have well-defined, production-constrained, seasonal tendencies the same as other agricultural/edible commodities.
6) That "thing" in India where they buy a lot of gold in the Fall might still be on the horizon.
An average price chart over N years disguises the movement of each individual year.
Over the last 8 years gold went up in 6 Septembers. The 2 down Septembers were 2006 and 2011.
Is 75% good enough for you?
8 years is way too small a sample.
I mean if you toss a coin 8 times, quite often you will get 6 out of 8 for either tails or heads.
How about the last 80 years?
You missed the point of my post.
BTW, gold prices from before 1968 are useless.
Very simple explanation:
Gold is inversely related to the market. The market is usually weak in September, but not this year, thus you have weak gold.
1) Are you talkin' to me?
2) If the gains from the 6 times gold went up GREATLY exceed the losses of the 2 times it went down, then it was good....in the past. :eek:
3) September, this year, by itself, could be a "stinker". Are you able to wait 12 months for the trade to come about again next year without regret?
The reason I posted when I did was that I saw gold right at the up trendline from late June lows. I had a vague feeling that it wasn't going to hold. Overnight futures again looking fairly ugly in precious metals land. Seems that the June to August rally was driven primarily by short covering in the futures markets as noted in the COT report.
gold/silver will bounce back hard but first shake out all the longs that wear tinfoil hats and bury gold in their backyard and buy bitcoins
major capitulation. cnbc all day asked if gold can go lower
#1 gold bull john paulson reduced his gold position by 50% in Q2 and that was probably him selling the rest of his position every day this week
however , longrun gold to go back down to the historical price of "the price of an average suit" which is only a couple bucks
especially in the context of stock market hitting all time highs and bonds down
There was a gold bubble when there were vending machines spitting out gold bars
Separate names with a comma.