Glad to hear you've got so many profitable spreads kahai! During the open I closed out my spread in wheat. It was pretty obviously going for a retracement, and I figured why not just take the profit since it's already at 142% of my profit target. So I closed it at -116 1/4. Sold 2 Jul 08 / Bought 2 May 08 ZW Wheat @ -116 1/4 - CLOSED - PROFIT 28 1/8 which is usd 2.888. I'm down to just 4 open spreads now, and it doesn't look like I'll be closing any more during the remainder of the day. Tomorrow I'll post updated P&L for the month with the close. Happy New Year to everyone following my journal. May the spreads be as profitable in the year to come!
Here's the current status at the end of December: As you can see, December was a very good month. Started out with getting in too early in the RB calendars and RB vs HO spreads, and too late into Natural Gas. SOME STATS Return since April is +221%. (Closed and Open profits) Profitable Trades: 74% Win/Lose Ratio: 0.98 Avg Days in Trade: 36 (Stats based only on closed trades) PLANS FOR JANUARY I think the four open spreads aren't too far away from being closed - the Feb RB / Jun RB is definitely to be closed this week. I only have one new spread planned for January - it's Jan 31st and it's in Rough Rice. Unfortunately it doesn't seem to be liquid enough on Globex, so I may just have to drop it. We'll see. 2007 was a turbulent year in the markets and I'm sure 2008 will be very interesting as well. Happy Trading in 2008 to everyone who keep on reading.
Natural Gas has tagged along with Crude Oil, so I've closed my spread for a small loss. This spread did not really work, and it's now breaking down from it's slow uptrend. Sold 1 Jun / Bought 1 March NG Natural Gas @ 0.150 - CLOSED - LOSS 0.010 which is 100 usd.
The remainder of my position in Feb/Jun RBOB Gasoline fell through my stoploss, and I just closed it at -0.1470. The other half was sold a few days ago at -0.1270, so the avg price is -0.1370. I didn't sum it up then, so the whole thing is added up now: Sold 4 Feb / Bought 4 Jun RB RBOB Gasoline @ -0.1370 - CLOSED - PROFIT 0.0160 which is usd 2.688. Missed about 1.000 there in the end - it could have been closed at a much better price just earlier today - unfortunately I was away from my computer.
Wow! My two remaining open spreads got stopped out: Sold 2 Apr RB RBOB Gasoline / Bought 2 Apr HO Heating Oil @ 0.0198 - CLOSED - LOSS of 0.0044 which is 370 usd. Sold 1 May RB RBOB Gasoline / Bought 1 May HO Heating Oil @ 0.0680 - CLOSED - PROFIT of 0.0020 which is 84 usd. And just like that, I'm flat! Can't even remember last time. From the peak of this last ride it's around 4k I think, so a lot of profits went today and yesterday. I'm just glad I got something good out of the RBOB Calendars and Wheat.
ever consider a profit target? Perhaps close out at a point that would exceed 80% of the previous 15 years' "maximum favorable excursion?" I believe MRCI shows that...
Great Journal. I have enjoyed reading it quite a bit this year. I am adding seasonal spread trading to my trading methods this year. Do you intend on doing anything differently this year based on your experience in 2007? Best of Luck in 2008.
I have noticed you use IB and mentioned SierraChart and Ensign for plotting candlestick charts of intraday spreads. I also use IB and have found a free charting software that uses IB feed: www.ibcharts.com. I am quite happy with it. It is highly customizable, you can easily create intraday candlestick spread charts.
Yes, I have a profit target in my system (described back in around July, I believe). It is, however, a very optimistic profit target and as such I probably should have a second, lesser optimistic profit target - especially for when trading multiple contracts and being able to take some contracts off after a while. The Gasoline/Heating Oil spreads was at around 70% of the profit target at the max.
Thanks for that, glad you enjoy it. I'm planning to trade the remainding of my plan, which has entries until the beginning of April - and then I'll see them through until all positions are closed.