Oops. Bummer, you were right. I looked at my spread chart again and that indeed was a Long March/Short Jan. Trading at -0.026 now! Congratulations!
Hello Mike Thanks for the reply, this is getting really interesting. At first I had some doubts about the chart I posted as well but before we go into that, the chart I posted was NOT an end-of-day chart - it is a delayed intraday chart. Please see the 3 files I am attaching to this post which shows: 1) The quotes for the spread during the day for the 19th of October. 2 points to note here, and they are (i) The time is in GMT +8 and (ii) I am not sure if all quotes are reflected in the table because I am not subscribed to live NYME data, which means I may be missing out on some intraday data. 2) The intraday graph, see how it traded on the 19th, even went up to positive territory to +0.019. 3) The end of day graph, note that the spread closed on -0.145 on the 19th, which is what you also see on MFGlobal. I just wanted to point out that I really don't know if the data I see is correct or not, and am hoping that someone with more experience can point out if they see a gross mistake. Another point I wanted to make is how volatile some of these spreads can be when you take a closer look. Good trading all. LG
Attached is an excel file that I have created to check the per-minute data of the spread from 19Oct 9am to 20Oct 8.30pm to make sure that my eyes are not playing tricks on me. I have put a password to it for copyright purposes to so please drop me an email if you would like the password. lifegauge{at)gmail.com Good trading all. LG
I just thought I'd write a brief note - no trades or anything. Just a few comments on what's on, and what's to come. Dec / Jul 08 ZM: My moving stoploss has been hit, but I've decided to stay with it for now and instead close it if it drops under -8. Partly because my bad avg entry skews the stoploss somewhat. Sep 08 / Mar 08 CL: SL hit. Looking to get out around even sometime this week. If Turkey stays out of Iraq it should work out. This is a shame, because at the most it was at least 0.75 in the black. May 08 / Dec HO: My second contract in this spread will be closed at -0.0900 (even). Almost there today. Mar 08 / Jan 08 NG: This spread is moving to the right side. Unfortunately I've only got one contract on. I'm moving my bid up 0.010 every day to try and catch a dip. If I'm not filled tomorrow I'll buy at market. New spread: Jul 08 / Mar 08 ZW Wheat I'm currently eyeing this spread, even though I still have about 2 weeks before my planned entry. If wheat gets another run, this spread will suffer a bloody loss. And since the bullrun in wheat has been part speculation, part drought and part weakness in the dollar - I'm contemplating whether it should be dropped for fundamental reasons. Two out of three reasons should be different for the next crop; who dares predict usd over the next months. I'll probably get one contract on, which is half the position size. That's it for now - happy trading!
Today I (finally) got my fill for the final contract in the Heating Oil spread, this time at -0.0900. Together with the first exit at -0.0600 this makes the avg exit -0.0750. Sold 2 May 08, Bought 2 Dec 07 HO Heating Oil @ -0.0750 - CLOSED - PROFIT usd 1.260 I'm not too happy with the exploitation of the seasonal swings in Heating Oil over the last two months - I got all the timing wrong and missed a lot of profits. Moving on...
I apologise for the delayed fill report, but I was busy receiving my beautiful baby daughter at the hospital! Drinks are on me! Whilst this was happening I got another contract filled in the Natural Gas spread, this one at -0.150. So the full position is: Long 2 Mar 08, Short 2 Jan 08 NG Natural Gas @ -0.165
Amazing that you still can keep up with the posting among all that excitement. All the best to you and your growing family
I put on a contract in this spread today: Bought 1 Jul 08, Sold 1 Mar 08 ZW Wheat @ -152 I might add another contract if there's a pullback of some sort. I'm planning to hold well into February. I've been watching this since it was sub -200. Other than that my crude oil spread is punishing me rather well, but I'm not sweating too much about it.