Seasonal spreads

Discussion in 'Journals' started by hrokling, Apr 23, 2007.

  1. Oops. Bummer, you were right. I looked at my spread chart again and that indeed was a Long March/Short Jan. Trading at -0.026 now! Congratulations!
     
    #291     Oct 19, 2007
  2. Here's what its looking like now - nice.

    [​IMG]
     
    #292     Oct 19, 2007
  3. Hello Mike

    Thanks for the reply, this is getting really interesting. At first I had some doubts about the chart I posted as well but before we go into that, the chart I posted was NOT an end-of-day chart - it is a delayed intraday chart.

    Please see the 3 files I am attaching to this post which shows:

    1) The quotes for the spread during the day for the 19th of October. 2 points to note here, and they are (i) The time is in GMT +8 and (ii) I am not sure if all quotes are reflected in the table because I am not subscribed to live NYME data, which means I may be missing out on some intraday data.

    [​IMG]


    2) The intraday graph, see how it traded on the 19th, even went up to positive territory to +0.019.

    [​IMG]


    3) The end of day graph, note that the spread closed on -0.145 on the 19th, which is what you also see on MFGlobal.

    [​IMG]


    I just wanted to point out that I really don't know if the data I see is correct or not, and am hoping that someone with more experience can point out if they see a gross mistake. Another point I wanted to make is how volatile some of these spreads can be when you take a closer look.

    Good trading all.
    LG
     
    #293     Oct 20, 2007
  4. Attached is an excel file that I have created to check the per-minute data of the spread from 19Oct 9am to 20Oct 8.30pm to make sure that my eyes are not playing tricks on me.

    I have put a password to it for copyright purposes to so please drop me an email if you would like the password.

    lifegauge{at)gmail.com

    Good trading all.
    LG
     
    #294     Oct 20, 2007
  5. I just thought I'd write a brief note - no trades or anything. Just a few comments on what's on, and what's to come.

    Dec / Jul 08 ZM:
    My moving stoploss has been hit, but I've decided to stay with it for now and instead close it if it drops under -8. Partly because my bad avg entry skews the stoploss somewhat.

    Sep 08 / Mar 08 CL:
    SL hit. Looking to get out around even sometime this week. If Turkey stays out of Iraq it should work out. This is a shame, because at the most it was at least 0.75 in the black.

    May 08 / Dec HO:
    My second contract in this spread will be closed at -0.0900 (even). Almost there today.

    Mar 08 / Jan 08 NG:
    This spread is moving to the right side. Unfortunately I've only got one contract on. I'm moving my bid up 0.010 every day to try and catch a dip. If I'm not filled tomorrow I'll buy at market.

    New spread: Jul 08 / Mar 08 ZW Wheat
    I'm currently eyeing this spread, even though I still have about 2 weeks before my planned entry. If wheat gets another run, this spread will suffer a bloody loss. And since the bullrun in wheat has been part speculation, part drought and part weakness in the dollar - I'm contemplating whether it should be dropped for fundamental reasons. Two out of three reasons should be different for the next crop; who dares predict usd over the next months. I'll probably get one contract on, which is half the position size.

    That's it for now - happy trading!
     
    #295     Oct 23, 2007
  6. Today I (finally) got my fill for the final contract in the Heating Oil spread, this time at -0.0900. Together with the first exit at -0.0600 this makes the avg exit -0.0750.

    Sold 2 May 08, Bought 2 Dec 07 HO Heating Oil @ -0.0750 - CLOSED - PROFIT usd 1.260

    I'm not too happy with the exploitation of the seasonal swings in Heating Oil over the last two months - I got all the timing wrong and missed a lot of profits. Moving on...
     
    #296     Oct 24, 2007
  7. I apologise for the delayed fill report, but I was busy receiving my beautiful baby daughter at the hospital! Drinks are on me!

    Whilst this was happening I got another contract filled in the Natural Gas spread, this one at -0.150. So the full position is:

    Long 2 Mar 08, Short 2 Jan 08 NG Natural Gas @ -0.165
     
    #297     Oct 26, 2007
  8. Congrats on the new addition to your family :)
     
    #298     Oct 26, 2007
  9. kahai

    kahai

    Amazing that you still can keep up with the posting among all that excitement.

    All the best to you and your growing family
     
    #299     Oct 26, 2007
  10. I put on a contract in this spread today:

    Bought 1 Jul 08, Sold 1 Mar 08 ZW Wheat @ -152

    I might add another contract if there's a pullback of some sort. I'm planning to hold well into February. I've been watching this since it was sub -200.

    Other than that my crude oil spread is punishing me rather well, but I'm not sweating too much about it.
     
    #300     Oct 29, 2007