Seasonal Rally in the Grains?

Discussion in 'Ag Futures' started by caroy, Oct 4, 2008.

  1. caroy

    caroy

    Anyone think we'll see a seasonal rally begin any time soon in the grains or will the rising dollar and economic woes keep prices low?
     
  2. Grains have been beaten down over the past few weeks but I read in a report yesterday that the inventory situation is BEARISH. When the equities markets turn then commodities will rally - this could be Monday or later in the week.
    I think beans will go down some more but wheat and corn charts look very oversold - it can still decline while getting more oversold but I am looking to go long wheat and corn next week.
     
  3. bean inventories were bearish. Wheat was slightly bullish, but it has other fundamental worries to contend with. I am thinking beans will see a bounce though, as harvest pressure begins to subside. Also, with fertilizer prices as high as they are, the bean/corn acre war will probably begin sooner rather than later.

    I'm liking all of the grains to the long side. At least for a short term bounce. As posted on my blog, I am long Nov beans and Dec. corn as of Friday.
     
  4. i got long the bean/corn spread today. july is at 2.19 moved up from 2.10 last night. The war for acres will begin quicker than we know, I';ve been watching the carry in the farther out deferred months and I;ve seen some large moves in beans and corn in the past two weeks. Anybody else playing the ratio??
     
  5. Shaqi

    Shaqi

    Correlation is high on outright futures. The green bars is the corn

     
  6. have a nice profit already, I think I will cover before friday. I don't want to be in a situation where I get killed on both sides due to an unexpected suprise in the report.