Calling it now - may take a year or so, but they have no rational plan to weather the storm, and their 1.5 billion in cash won't save them. On top of their terrible retail model, the value of their real estate continues to fall. Everyone knows that Lampert viewed SHLD more as a REIT than a retailer, so he's pretty much screwed given the deterioration in the commercial real estate market. I wonder how long that 'right' to borrow 4 billion under their credit facility will last? Sears simply can't compete with the Big Box retailers such as Target, Costco, Sam's Club/Walmart, Home Depot, Lowe's, Best Buy, or the clothing retailers such as JC Penney, Kohl's... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=ayrkEmn5J804&refer=home
IMO, these "big box" retailers are done for. I think the market is going to return to the local shops, smaller appliance stores, etc. Best Buy, Home Depot, etc. are a hallmark of over-consumption that is coming to an end. Short them all.
I agree. Remember, people hold the power, the consumer. They just have to stick to their convictions and do it.
then why you are not short?for someone who trash talks the market with this frequency one would think you would have the balls to short at least one share
......creaky floors, "banker's hours", no parking, slow delivery, staffed with old farts, dated merchandise......ugh!
I actually like those places - I usually can bargain with them to get the sticker price knocked down. Service is more personal.
Radio Shack always seem to come through these things. I guess there are always going to be nerds who need batteries and AV converters.
The short rate on SHLD is 60%. That means that if you sold 100 shares of stock and held it short for a year, you would owe $4800 [approx at current stock price]. Everyone knows SHLD is going to "zero" [which is why the short rate is what it is and the RE complicates valuation], but you have to know what you are doing.