since I waited to post to make a point let me cover two bases in this post: orders of magnitude and problem solving. The prior post was the third odrer of magnitude post. the series is 1, 10 100 and 1000. Each order is of equal import. post 1 was equal to posts 2 thru 10 and was equal to posts 11 thru 100. The next posts 101 thru 1000 will be of the sme import. If we were doing theory, it would take a while to impart the deductive reasoning. So I will post the results of 101 thru 1000 today as the day goes by. Now lets solve a problem using deduction. we can do fligh 370 to get it off the table. the whole problem is one flight and we have all the flight evidence. It began and it ended and had a middle. we know both ends right off. the dependent variable is the flight path and he indepenednet variable is the series of human psychology based events. The events parallel other prior examples. My pragmatic expereince is filing flight plans on several equipment levels and participating with the pilots as well. I have had equipment services from centorians, to Moonies, to Lear. to AF1. So here is the OOE's for after take off to the landing. 1. Flight is out of a twin towers city (I have many shots of twin towers while visiting KL) 2, twin towers are target. 3. plane is taken over by those who target Twin towers. 4. turn plane round with full fuel load. 5. Pilots decompress plane to prenet 1,000's of deaths. 6. Not navigation possible cos of frozen people. 7. 777 automatic navigation works just like the pritate je carrying the golfers in past years. 8. no military monitoring. In golf case plane was traked by military jets. 9. full load of fuel expires and engines monitored by their manufacturer in concert with boeing airframe guys . 10 calculate fuel left at turn. 11. draw fuel expenditure arc pivoting from turn 12 sweep waters in cone at proper distance of 11 13. do revovery for the related living persons. and Boeing research QED pilots showed much valor to decompress and freeze everyone. So doing problem solving it is just a case of dealing with a system and the known events of system. Space, shapes and change of shapes to sense and combine with LTM to yield perception .
Making money. Lets use 993's post 86 to examine the daily life in trading. It shows price change nets a profit everyday. By knowing when and how turns occur, the trader anticipates each turn. turns link trends to gether. The money making is a slalom of longs and shorts profit segemtns. A trader can develop his business plan quite simply by using a SOP for a business plan I use a 12 part SOP plan. Five years of P&L projections are found in Part 6. Monthlies for two years followed by quarterlies for the last three years. Request for capital is in Part 2. since the P&L's show compounding blows up the effort very soon, there is only the incentive to do everything correctly. Emotions take care of how fast a trader compounds. EVERYONE begins with one contract. There are two paths to geet to that point of beginning. Begin with any amount and learn failure until only 1 contract BP is left. Or do work and drills and save money while doing drills . I did it this way in 1957. I got 300 dollars and traded stocks. In 1960 I bought Mercedes 190SL on trip to Europe in Kopenhagen then drove down to beaches betwen france and italy. bikin's were everywhere Wife had sweedish orange bikini as I remember. Got nice response at Baptist church when we showed slides of trip . I will fill in details of bridge from price (10) and volume (4) cases. to having "anticipation" to begin and end trend profit taking. Visualize OOE's that are interlocking as market flows. Price cases GIVE PERMISSION to MEASURE volume using a VOLUME TEST PROCEDURE. You write result in LOG. You LOOK UP this status as an END EFFCT of a trend. I will give you a SET of end effect look up sheets (they are already posted in MANY places). If there IS an END EFFECT, then you determine the related TYPE OF TURN. (1 sheet for this called "Modrian table") To make money by taking trend profits you look at final MOVE REVERSAL SHEET. you find the solution by analysis of the PRESENCE, or NOT on the sheet AND by three arrows which stand for sentiment, turn direction and LEG 2 of the present bar. For every turn there are three choices: execute, hold thru or sideline. So this post covers making money and pages 101 thru 1000 as an order of magnitude for "knowing you know" to take the full offer of the market. Lets look at the content of the 5 parts of post #1
Group I USE finite math to make go/nogo decisions. Group II Price cases give permission to do the volume test procedure. Group III Volume is where a trend ends and middle are measured using a single consistent test procedure. All possible answers are on sheets band by band where the bands follow a defined OOE. Group IV You do only one routine over and voer on a fiveminute bar. Your mind is quicker than the market operation so you always "know you know". Group V you make money by "anticipating" ends of trend profit segments. To do this you have a 1/2 inch three ring binder. Under plastic front cover you place the Modrian table. Under the back plastic cover you place the Move Reversal table. Each table is color coded into eight parts. The vertical divisions are the four trend types. The top half is the failsafe; the bottom half is the tested events portion. Inside you have three sheets tabbed as: PP's A band B through K bands This small binder makes you an expert as soon as you learn to use it. MADA is the routine. during the 300 seconds of a bar, you do MADA until it "LOCKS IN" the bar status. As status is logged, you see flow of market. So to make money, you are involved with the mind, the trade and the housekeeping in that order. you mind is operating on a 10 to 100 MilliSec cycle, the trade is pushing a button which is set up right after prior button pressing, housekeeping is annotating and logging at your leisure. Housekeping is what keeps the three arrows in plain view I do a steno pad of several columns where I do notes on my laps of MADA per bar. Left half is arrows and extreme of bars; right half is my thought of "knowing I know". It is filled with "marks" made by rapid strokes in one direction. I trade using an MAT platform. Three panes with sub-panes. P&L sub pane is like green gas pump numbers changing . From now on we will be dealing with where the rubber meets the road.
Let me take you thru one bar of trading. MADA is done a few times over the 300 seconds. The mind brings to the surface the context automatically. sensing happens and the mind brings the small part of LTM to bear. before lock in, all you see is the "permission' being given or not. Half of bars do not give permission. Thus 12,000 seconds are just a cacual waiting expereince. Do housekeeping during this vast mount of time avaiable. When "permission" is granted, you are also making money. PRV is a shadow that tells you the answer at count down second "0". I invented this to get to an answer 300 seconds ahead of time 81 times a day you know how a bar ends in to indiependent variable right bout 12 seconds into each bar. So on all bars your mind brings up the answer ahead of time to keep you in a state of anticipation. "oh my, these guys are going to navigate to the twin towers and kill more people than 9/11. I will anticipate and decompress the plane right now". Any one of 239 minds could bash out a window close by. Use your head to bash window So some bars are very nice borderline cases. Some will end a trend; most will not You will only do 3 to 5 trades a day using the small 3 ring binder. Or you may have a day that has more trades as in post #86. you know you know you will enter on open and hold to one side of range is met. then you will go to the other side of the range to do the first full range traverse. Or you will do an odd number of tedes to get there Or you will just do the dominant trades nd skipp the non dominant trade. we are operating in a defined context at all times. I will do a final rendition on how a geometri appraoch determines the outer boundary where sentiment is determined (this is one of the three arrows). Back to the single bar. first permission. then the volume test procedure. It is three parts so you can do a week of bars and get the test procedure down. the log is laid out to do the test procedure very quickly. 1. is bar a repeat of last bar? if not go to 2. 2, is bar a bar like a bar that has already happened (A reverse chron test)? If not, then go to step 3 3. just assign the next bar in the volume OOE. all of these three parts keep trend in order as can be reasoned thru. permission leads to test test leads to volume OOE volume OOE's lead to End Effects End effects lead to turn ID on modrian And turns lead to movement reversals at ends of profit segments. doing each bar to get lock in of bar lets anticipation reign at all times. Thus you have time on any bar to "carve the turn" within three ticks of the extreme.
Let me take you thru a day's trading. You do carry over on prior day after close. you go from general to specific on the lines of page 5 of the log. A day starts just as it left off. Over nite trading is not included The open is degapped to the prior close. dD this by restting the geomtry and continuing the volume OOE's. This means all three arrows have continuity as well. By knowing carry over and the closing status you have CONTINUITY of the interlocking trends of the market. Keynes explained this with the help of Mandelbrot. the entry is WITH the sentiment and is dermined to be in an exisitng trend or by WAITING for an entry signal within the first six bars of the day. If yesterday's trend is coming to close, then just wait for a new segment. If trend was just beginning resume from extreme early value. after entry on open then go into the bar by bar routine. I will post all the tools mentioned. you are now oriented for doing posts 101 to 1,000 as an order of magnitude. in money matters, seven doublings equal an order of magnitude shift. this means that you can find a contract trading limit in a given market. thus you go to different markets to be able toa pply all capital as it grows. In ET I have posted trades on larger capital levels. when you have surplus capital in intraday trading, you shift to position trading and then sector rotation. review a position example where 17 points on 100,000 shares was done. A biotch stock was exited in 31 partial fills 17point net and Intuit was picked up at 100,000 share level. This is low seven digit account stream trading. .
Those of us following along miss your regular additions to your journal. At the current posting rate we might never reach the next order of magnitude. Thank you for the interesting set of drills in this thread, especially the ânewâ ones. They are appreciated. -river
trendo, thanks for the question. I see youâve been around ET for a decade so youâre probably at least vaguely familiar with Jack. Iâm too lazy to review your posting history so Iâm just going to assume your interest is genuine. If not, you can consider the following just humor but perhaps someone following along might benefit in some way. I used to trade equities breaking out of intermediate term trendlines on high volume on a daily timeframe. I thought I had reached the point where significant improvements were unlikely until I read this post: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showpost.php?p=1078337&postcount=42 I recall printing the post, rereading it many times, highlighting many of the sentences, and making drawings of price and volume in the margins in an effort to grasp what, exactly, Jack was trying to convey. Prior to understanding that post, I traded breakouts and never even considered that there was a left trendline. After I finally grasped the key concepts, I traded from the right trendline to the left trendline (or the failure to reach the left trendline). As my results improved, I read more and more of Jackâs posts. I no longer trade equities but the concepts work on any instrument and on any timeframe, given sufficient liquidity. Periodically, someone asks Jack for a succinct version of his methodology. Perhaps he should just give them the link above. That post has all the key elements: trends overlap, volume leads price, the FTT, dominant and non-dominant movement, the difference between a retrace and a reversal. -river
Hi everyone, i just registered on this forum to participate in this thread, i have to catch up but hopefully it is not that old. I am not convinced by Conventional Indicators used by most traders, i started trading not so long ago i'm really the total idiot in this domain, but i have the impression stuff like RSIs and MACDs barely do more than designing a trend once it's over, so when you take a look at your chart it seems that they are always right yet when yo enter a position it just go your way once out of two times. Hopefully i fell on one of Jack's threads by chance while visiting this website, just seeing how aggressive traders were towards him made me think "this man has a solution", so i tried to read as much as possible since yesterday the method is fascinating yet my knowledge is so limited that i have a hard time understanding what to do even in such a thread that is designed to start from scratch, english doesn't help since it is not my native language. This was the useless part for most people now i just want to link you the beginning of my work to catch up with people following the thread. First i would like people to judge a 4x4 matrix i've done based on Redneck's one but i only integrated drill one. Then i'll provide a 4x4 Canvas based on Redneck's one for people that want to catch up faster and a blank 4x4 Canvas for people who want to train. Have a nice weekend,