I'm relatively new to elitetrader, and new to trading in general, and thought I'd contribute my trading ideas. My trading involves a mix of 1-20 day position trades and a few intra-day scalps when the opportunity is obvious. My index future moves are generally intraday, while my energy plays may be a little longer. I try to use a mix of technical and fundamental market analysis to guide my energy trading. I'm learning a lot of new techniques as we go, and have a lot to learn from plenty of your more experienced folks. So please feel free to comment.
natural gas short starting last night.. a. originally, i sold short 2 contracts average 8.17 b. last night, i put in a sell order for 1 contract at 8.50. c. the order filled this morning. d. nervous that this thing would continue to rise, because I didn't expect it to keep going past 8.50 resistance so far (there was no resistance), I actually entered a spread, but bullish to gain on a continued rise. foolish... bought 5 Oct at 8.80. sold 5 at 8.74 after I saw it dropping quickly past my predetermined threshold. kicking myself for even entering this trade. e. The freefall started. When morning rush hit, I sold 1 more (total of 4 now) Sep at 8.08. f. covered 4 at 8.065 when I saw second test towards 8.10 resistance. In the end, I gained $1632 on sep, lost $771 on oct. I exited Oct properly, just should have never entered it. All is well; I am new to trading and these kinks will iron out over time. Overall, I'm learning to stick to the plan. I think this $7.90-$8.10 is a solid price at least until the next gas report comes out Thursday.
short. 2 ES this morning, 1 at 1277.25, 1 at 1275.50. will try to let it run the best I can. bought 50k usd/eur on sunday at 1.2756 on concept that fed may pause on Aug 8.
long 2 qg 7.50. target 8.00. i'd normally say we'll be at 8.00 within a day or so, but with this market there's no telling - i may be there by night time. i will add to this long position as long as the reports are bullish and/or hurricanes are coming. didn't anticipate this order hitting already today.
What a great morning. 1) Sold 2 qg at 8.235 at 8am est. 2) Bought 2 NQ - 1 at 1495.25 last night and 1 at 1498.00 this morning. 3) Sold last night 50k usd/eur 1.2822. 4) before last night's close bought 50 DVN Sep $70 calls avg 1.70. didn't realize with potential buyout IV would collapse that much ... but its OK - I'm ahead.
sold 2 NQ at 1512.50. Gain $625. 2:28pm. Misread direction for day: Bought 1 QG 8.54, sold 1 at 8.30. Loss $600. Swing trade: Bought 1 QG at 8.06. Have open orders at for 2 each at 7.60 and 7.50. Price target: 8.20-9.00 (depending on tommorow's report).
Imo, NG should be bought on strength and sold on weakness. I consider today weak (strong open, weak close). I would be very careful about buying on limit unless it is much lower (more like 5.50), as it could easily get back down there in a week or two. No positions on NG. Good luck.
The pattern lately seems to be weakness after strength, with strength outnumbering weakness net. I think we finally have fundamental strength with continued heat in the summer, and hurricane nervousness premium. Tommorow's net EIA number will be interesting. I'd rather be on the long side right now than short. 8.60 is probably a solid resistance level, while 9.00 would be a good short level. 8.30-8.35 is a more likely upward target for the next few days. It looks already like buying will dominate tonight's session, so my limit orders probably won't get filled. We'll see if it reverses. Good idea to rethink my limits though - I am changing it to 1 contract instead of 2 at each price. No need to get too greedy. You never know. If we have a large storage # [nearly impossible], support is probably around 6.50, the condition before last week's nat gas report.
tough day today: Here's how it actually went. In late trading, I bought 1 qg 7.66, 1 qg at 7.50. My average long is 7.74 for Sep qg 3 contracts. Woke up to find a selloff. I am holding this position long, but entering no more until I have a clear signal either way. I consider the nat gas storage report still relatively bullish (not as bullish as I would've liked though), so that is my basis for holding. We're in prime of hurricane season, and its clear qg likes to overshoot in every direction. I will stay in for now. the charts say $7.25 is a solid resistance level with this environment of no imminent hurricane. Even on a less than impressive storage report, the immediate 'report response' spike didn't go below levels tested earlier in the session. That shows some strength at this price. $7.00 is obviously the next stop. down $3200 for now. index trades: bought early day 1 NQ 1499.00 and 1 NQ 1516.75. sold 2 1521.25. profit: $540. on hunch last night of late session buying I bought 1 ES for overnight. Didn't anticipate the european selloff. With such a sharp gap down I didn't feel secure holding on. Took $350 loss. I think its easier to get a decent trade by just making my decision of a move from morning trading.