thats fine.. that 2.03-2.04 range was tough today. thought it would never break out. My repeat trade was buying the 2.05 area after the breakout and selling 2.06 - did that twice... you had me worried there with your 1.91 call. .... be happy to take a small bite. otherwise the market might turn it into a loss when you blink the eye.
I was just being a little hopeful when I saw it break 1.99, I had a couple of buys at 1.91 Yeah, Until I build my account up to huge numbers, I'm not sure if I can let a winning RB position sit too long. A loss could be huge in a matter of seconds. Oh well, back to CL for now. I've had enough excitement with RB for the week! People starting to roll over to June contract. Volume is almost equal to May.
i think the rolling must be near done. did you see that may/june spread close? that was the 'obvious' trade i missed. i didn't take it because the apr/may never did close.
i think the rolling must be near done. did you see that may/june spread close? went from near 3.00 to 1.30 in the last few days. guess that bullish near term news in last EIA fixed that outlook. that was the 'obvious' trade i missed. i didn't take it because the apr/may never did close. So it wasn't 'so...' obvious... But maybe as a rule of thumb we should always sell 2.00+ spreads. worst case is it doesn't close or widen a bit more. but a decent probability trade, especially 2.50+.
yeah so I've been following rbob since 1.60 in january. This is a seasonal market and almost a slamdunk when the fundamentals are lined up. You guys can keep playing with the futures, but I position trade it with option spreads, 5 to 15 cents out of the money, 5 to 15 cent spreads. If I has bigger balls, I woulda bought the July 2.60/2.90 spread in January when gas was 1.60 and sold it for a 5 TIMES PROFIT today, or wait for a possible lottery ticket (hurricane, surprise disruptions in key refineries, or IRAN) for a 50 TIMES profit IF gas jumps above 2.60 on news anytime before June 26 (July contract expiry). This market is definitely going above 2.40 by August. Demand is higher year over year, and supply is tighter year over year, plus we have Nigeria, Venezuala, and Iranian geopol risks. And this isn't even bringing into question the fact that one of the best weather forecasters (he predicted 05 hurricanes, then predicted the LACK of hurricanes in 06, which was a contrarian call that happened to be right, now he's saying 07 is going to bring intense and devestating hurricanes) is saying hurricanes will hit the gulf this year. Without an event like hurricanes, Iran, or Nigerian electoral instability, we'll STILL see gasoline break 2.40. My research and nymex floor intelligence tells me 2.60-2.70. IF we DO get one of the aforementioned events, watch out. 3.00-3.50 gasoline WHOLESALE. Gas went to 2.90 on hurricane katrina in 05, now this year the dollar is WEAKER, supply is TIGHTER, demand is HIGHER. THAT's why we could see 3.00-3.50. The top 3 best performing commodities so far in 07 are uranium, nickel, and gasoline in that order. The first two are almost impossible to trade directly unless you are an institution. You can buy the equities but that's different risk, not just supply/demand/geopolitics. Gasoline is the best trade right now and has been for the past 3 months. It will continue to be for the next 3 months. Also watch out for live cattle. That market's about to tank - August puts.
:eek: Great call scriabinop23!!! Bought again today at 2.2200 only to sell at 2.2250 Slamming my head on the wall right now.
hehheh... buy the dips and walk away til close. and if you're in the red, buy the next day's dip. repeat until it goes green. if nervous, short oil.
RB JUN07 Futures RBM7 39 round turns, avg buy: 2.2304 avg sell: 2.2309 PnL: 39*(2.2309-2.2304)*$4.2 - $4.8) = $631.80 sold at the highs of the day, covered too soon and went long, then the entire day struggled to recover... Is there are way to reduce exchange fees, maybe buy a seat at NYMEX/CME? Or some ECM 106.R like intencitives? Thanks in advance HLB