that's why our company is building software based on psychology and not mathematics. it's the emotional element of the market that causes volatility. the hft days of the goldmans and other grey men investment banks will go the way of the dinosaur. just as quickly can programmers find ways to "steal" micro-pennies from trades, so can programmers find ways to steal them back. has anyone thought of that? we have. [/QUOTE]
there is no way in this world's hell the sec is going to allow the systematic manipulation of the world's financial by computers. to do so would undermine the usa's national security, and the world's economic stability to the point where one country (china), or a group of financial entities (hedge funds), or even one rogue trader with enough money and power to cause a catastrophic cascade effect across the entire financial system to virtually wipe us all out in one day. no way that's happening. we came close, this was just a wake up call for changes that are as inevitable as death and taxes. [/B][/QUOTE]
i just don't really have any statistics on making versus not making it verses automated making it verses hand trading (for lack of a better term) making it or not making it. the accepted figure is that 90% fail, but how accurate is that? I see the points but i don't understand why you need to automate to survive, maybe if I did, and saw added value, I would invest in automation. and do we need to define automation how? becuase i use an excel spreadsheet dde from my software and execute of some signals I designed..am i semi-automatic? am I still consdiered a manual or hand trader? i still make the trades....unless i use software stops which i rarely do. to me, the definitions are not operationally clear. from what i read what many on this thread say that unless you code your strategy in to a black box, defined basically by a computer handling every aspect of trading, you are dead. since the terms and statistics are not presented, verified, or really defined well, i find it very hard to understand how the valid conclusion is automate or die. it seems mostly conjecture and just as reliable as saying the market went down because bp has a oil leak. seems always hypothesizing after the event. is trading dead because of automation? why? I still do not understand EXACTLY how this affects price movement. some programs will favor the long side, some the short side, some spreading...the market still moves directionally....so by definition there is still money to be made.....im clearly not aware of the real story....i suppose. am i a moron for making money with my hands and charts? is this a fantasy? the market appears to be consolidating in stocks...this is always a difficult time to make a lot of money....but that's happened before. in 2007 2008 it was no different than 2001 in terms of being on the short side and being hugely profitable....what did automation do there? my best years for 07 and 08....09 there were less shorting opportunities but i still lived....2010...there were more profitable opporutnities than 2009. i day trade and hold zero market risk overnight. anyway....maybe someone has the info that i will understand..until then...im trading the same way..and always trying to be a better manager of the downside of my trading days.
all you need to do to "catch up" with the system is program your mind into the machine. that's all automation is anyway. it's rules created and adjusted by humans to perceived changes in patterns in numbers. and on a simpler note, arbitrage is nothing more than finding differences in prices between two pairs as a result of time delays or human indifference (eg. not noticing until it's too late to make the correction, someone's found it and made money.). you take your rules, your methods, and program them into the computer to speed up - rather, keep up - with the market as a whole, and you're as relevant as the computer sitting on the floor taking up space.
fyi, the 90% failure rule is total bullshit, a misnomer. more like 80/20, if that. i'm sure someone can actually figure out the ratio, but why bother.
thanks..my point is why try to 'catch up'....did everyone here who was profitable by hand now fail and automate and now is profitable to that level again? im skeptical...and moreso because i don't see a difference in my profit. regarding arb...im glad you know the definition...i hope it didn't appear that i did not. i see no need to speed up..the prices still move...i still open short and then cover later....the prices still change and i still get fills....im not concerned with a penny or 3 cents in any trade...i always thought if you were your future would be short..and i thought that as soon as decimalization started... trading for pennies is quite simply too difficult and there is too much noise at that level...well for me...the non automated guy. that sounds like a better username than mine anymore. thanks.
i can't program for shit myself, not a programmer. but i can tell some geek what i want it to do based on what i show him on the screen, translated from all the rules i have in my head. and i can ALWAYS, and mean, every time, make more money just going allin when i see a stock bottom out, or peak out, be it realtime, 3 min, 5, 15, whatever time period, and be able to walk away happy i don't have to keep grinding out pennies like some begger on the street. lol. now that was funny. btw, EVERYONE is playing catch up this year.
So maybe in the end, it's the discretionary trader with great loss control that will win out (among the individual traders), and not some programmer with a system looking for an edge that disappers every few months?