You're usually on here talking out your ass, kid, but like most of your type, I always think you sort of know you're making an idiot of yourself, and are doing it simply because your interest in trading intersects with the fact that you have no life and it's better to be insulted than ignored (for people like you). I've always thought that kids like you would be at i.e. a political site talking out your ass if that was your interest, or a tech site, or whatever. But in this thread, taking on Aaron, you're so fucking far out of your league that you have no way of even understanding how stupid you look. Have you checked out the fund's performance since inception? Do you understand that the greatest traders the world has ever know have made trades that lose money, sometimes quite a bit of money? Aaron is a scientist who switched disciplines and created his own systems from scratch and is now extracting money from the markets at a rate of return that beats the shit out of probably 80% of money managers when you look at the totality of managed funds. You're idiotic chest-beating is in itself ample proof that you don't trade. We didn't really need this confirmation
don't bother nik, he's got 4400+ posts, how can he have any time do do anything else? 50+ posts a day? unreal.
Yep, I just reviewed a few posts from this piker. Not worth our time. He'll be gone in a year or so. On ignore. Aaron, congratulations on the performance of your fund since inception, and I'm certain you'll weather this drawdown like a pro.
so, after everyone is done hugging aaron's nuts, maybe this was expected in his strategy. Since no of us know what it is, perhaps there is a 1...2...5% chance of this occurring, or perhaps its a black swan type event. How do you know he'll recover? How do =YOU= know this wasn't an expectation at some point? If he blows out, are you going to feed his family? Stop saying stupid shit, I find it condescending that when he has a bad month everyone says "oh.. you know its will be ok..". Because you know what, IT MIGHT NOT. Ultimately, he's the one with money on the line and stands to win or lose. If he wins, congrats, and if he loses, well, thats the RISK he took (whether he knew it or not). He's the only one with real money and personal capital (meaning more than money on the line). He is the only one who can decide if this was all EVEN PART OR a PROBABLE OUTCOME OF HIS STRATEGY. All we can wish him is, good trading. Afterall, I can trade naked puts and win most of the time, and 'occasionally' blow up. Will you blame it on poor luck? Will I come back? NO its an EXPECTATION I will blow up, even tho I'm right most of the time. When I see posts like this it makes me crazy because its like trading 101 -- you can win most of the time playing a t ype of russian roulette, but that doesn't mean you should... and to think ppl can judge and determine whether he should be/is or is not a great/good/bad trader is inane and insane. blah.
Interesting post, but a little scattered. You start out by complaining about the community commiserating with an established member who happens to have his P/L posted on a public website. I don't get it, but maybe you're just angry (perhaps because your own trading isn't going so well). Yep, it might be okay or it might not. Not sure about your reasons for pointing out the glaringly obvious. But then you take a weird shift and apparently suggest that Aaron's trading is a type of Russion Roulette, as opposed to a well constructed system with xx years of positive returns and a good expectation going forward (based on decent past returns - after all, what else do you judge a system on?). What is it that made you make the leap, talking about shorting naked puts, etc etc. Maybe you know something about Aaron's systems that I don't? And then you make the leap to talking about how we can't judge a trader? Well, it's a bit easier if a trader's results are publicly posted, isn't it? Are your results publicly available (maybe they are, I have no idea). And then, this Wtf are we doing if not that? Anyhow, bizarre post.
If you are going to disagree with others at least get your facts straight. (1) He is NOT the only one with money on the line. I have money in his fund and I suspect that others on ET do as well. (2) He makes some amt money each month regardless of whether or not he hits a new highwater mark. He may not rake in the big money performance fees but the mgmt fee (2% of 4.9m AUM) aint bad scratch. (3) He has stated in his monthly update that the crude move was outside of what he expected based on historical data. That should pretty much tell you right there that this was not an expected event.
There's a lot of market action in commodities in the last year that is outside of what is expected base on historical data.
The numbers speak for themselves regardless of personal biases. When then nasdaq 100 is up 26%, 17% YTD returns suck. Plain and simple. If you can't beat the index funds, you're doing it wrong. No one cares about 2002 performance. This is 2007. The fund also did badly in 2003.