Hi, PointOne, You're more than welcome here Thank you for your charts, is that SCT, you're using? Schaefer
Well the T is correct, I've yet to master the S and C part. You mention 08:35 bar, this was a point 3 short after the FTT at 08:25. (I didn't start monitoring until 08:30, otherwise I would have been looking to short the 08:25 bar extreme). This may seem nuts at first, but it is one of the safer places to enter - you know if you are wrong quickly and cheaply. However, the 08:45 bar trashed that channel and you had to consider change to Long there. It was a rough bar and it cost me because I was badly positioned with my late initial entry on the 08:40 bar. However, it turns out that this was a new point 3 (NP3) and so you should be short for sure (treat 12740 as your point 3). The next 2 bars confirm short. The next hurdle was the 09:00 bar which was a stall, but looked a lot like a reverse which would have shaken off many shorts in a mini-cascade. Note the TL held and after the low of 09:05 was breached you had continuation short on increasing volume - so you hold. I set a LMT target this time for fun to see if I was in tune and it was hit to the tick (before going lower 10 mins later). So I share this to show you that even though I make horrible mistakes, I know what they are and I am slowly eliminating them and profitably heading towards SCT. Keep up the great work.
Hi Schaefer, Great journal and I wish you the best. I too am interested in trading in asia and will be watching your progress. Why did you pick the index and not a stock(s) and why the Nikkei and not the hong kong etc...? Thanks and again all the best
Hi 1Reason, Thanks I'll need it. I only trade eminis, so picking the index was no brainer for me. The Nikkei Mini's volatility, and margin requirements meet my risk tolerance, and account size. Hope that helped, Schaefer
Okay folks, I have a ton of work piled up for work tomorrow, so going to have to call it the night. Here's the afternoon session recap. 3 more trades in the afternoon, 1 scratch, 2 winners. Won +6 ticks. Life sure is easier, when going with trend. Scratch trade Won +6 ticks Market gapped down after lunch, retraced with weak volume. It started another run down, and formed a double bottom 12:13am bar. Another fake out by breaking out of the neckline of the "W", then did another run down. I'm a bit more intune with the market in the afternoon session. I have to work on holding on to winners a little longer. Good Night everyone Schaefer PS: New contract starts tomorrow.
Trading date of 03/13/08. Did not trade the morning session, as I was really beat at work today, and needed to catch a few zzzzs.... Traded the afternoon session on the new contract. I had thought that new contracts on the first day of the new quater usually ends up, "UP", but not this one folks. It tanked right from the open after break. I had 6 trades, 3 wins, 3 losses. I'm starting to hold 'em a bit longer now that I'm starting to get comfortable with it. Feeling still groggy, and made a few mistakes, there were no reasons to exit on those pullbacks, rather should have added more. First trade, I was trying to follow up on that engulfing long bar with good volume, but no follow through, that means weak market sentiment, so I switched to short bias after this stop out. -3 Ticks Second trade, reversed to short on that engulfing red bar with good volume. It was a good ride, but my trail was too tight, and got kicked out. It would have been a good add point. +11 Ticks Third, and Fourth trades were shorts with the trend, but bad entries resulted in stop outs. Eight ticks in a row, that hurt. -4, -4 Ticks Fifth trade, short was a so so entry, still with the trend. But again, my trail was too tight, and got kicked out, leaving more money on the table. +8 Ticks Sixth trade was the best risk/reward ratio of the night. Too bad it was on the last wave, and market decided to take a breather. +2 Ticks Net +10 Ticks before commissions.
Learner, what is going on with the Mini? The last a couple of months, that I have watched this instrument, it was rather quite docile. Where's all this volatility coming from??? And most importantly, how long is this going to last? Schaefer PS: I'm going to call it the night here, long day tomorrow at work (Friday).
Schaefer, Japanese stock markets are being dragged around by the yen right now. I do not trade JPY but many stock plays available as a proxy for currency plays. Increase in broker research being put out analyzing the effects of yen fluctuations on Japanese corporate earnings. If you believe the carry trade has a long way to go and yen heading toward 95, then won't be long before Nikkei is testing 12k.