Dude I've been trading the VIX since before your parents cut you off your weekly allowance. There is an old saying, it's better to let people think you are a fool then to open your mouth and confirm it. Well, we just got the confirm.
You knew my parents? That's cool! There's another saying, don't mistake experience for skill. You keep bashing others and me just because we don't trade your style, yet I have never seen you answer any pointed questions, including the last one I just asked you. If I was a betting man, I would bet you've been paper trading the VIX this whole time
My style? Huckleberry, you have no idea what my style is. I would tell you but then I would have sit you down and teach you basic math skills at the same time and it would be too time consuming. I don't blame you personally, you are a product of our poor public school system. And if you were a betting man, you would be broke. Be glad you aren't one. I've spent 14 years on this forum answering questions, I suggest you learn how to use the search function, no math required, just spelling, and I can't help you with that either.
I see. You just don't answer MY questions. Is it because trying to would expose everything you DIDN'T learn in all you years of trading. Seriously though, I don't know why you get so defensive. I've been very respectful to you initially and you act very condescending. Well maybe you feel like you have a right to do that given your 14 years and 20,000 posts. It's just unfortunate you think you know everything and are not willing to open your eyes to see what else is out there or have anyone challenge your thinking without automatically saying "you're an idiot, go learn some high school math"
Dude, c'mon. Everyone knows the VIX isn't based on percentage move of SPX. The reason you're not getting some textbook reply on how the VIX works is because you're trying to call Mav out on something everyone here already understands as basic VIX knowledge. On top of that his entire point had nothing to do with how the VIX even worked in the first place but everything to do with a crowded short vol trades spiking the VIX higher than it would have in 2008 (where it's pretty clear people weren't crowding up the short vol space). This is you right now:
i960, I like that flame warriors thing that's pretty funny! Not sure why nitpick though I'm asking him a very pointed question relevant to the discussion. Specifically, I don't agree that the VIX is spiking higher in 2015 than in 2008 due to the crowded vol space. Mav is saying "it's a stupid trade, everyone's doing it, look at the proof it's the % spike in VIX". What I'm trying to explain though, is that vix may be spiking higher in % terms, but it's incorrect to look at vix % moves. In other words, a VIX move from 10 to 12 is VERY different than a VIX move from 20 to 24 as far as it's implications of market sentiment. Yet they are the same % move. Am I that unclear?? Sorry, maybe I'm not speaking english .... does everyone else also not understand what I'm talking about besides the Mav mafia?
This discussion is far above my comprehension level, but from what I've learned, the smartest guys can be the shittiest traders. (Not that I mean this about anyone in this discussion though) They often are so convinced that something will happen given their mathematical models that they forget to consider that they don't control every part of the market, and when they get it wrong, boy do they get it wrong. Sometimes, they don't even get it wrong, but they run out of margin, or they run out of time, or.... etc. Where I'm going with this though is that if you are really making money doing what you're doing, then this is all that matters. To me, the PnL is the final deciding factor between what works and what doesn't. I doubt both you and Mav will get into a pissing contest and put up your daily PnL's, but I think this is the one absolute and democratic way to solve this. The market is always right, and your PnL never lies.
You are spot on. Models only get you so far, sometimes what you thought was a perfect curve fit becomes way off base with an outlier. In the end, flexibility is key, which is why I'm open to listening to others and learning from them....except when they just dismiss the discussion outright. I don't really need to get in a pissing contest. Honestly if either of us were multimillionaires we would probably not be here. I doubt Soros or Buffet lurk these forums (although obviously they are not really traders) I was up 0.2% today lol
See post #197 by ktm. If she was "already fudging the numbers" then it's all going to be revealed at the jury trial. If what ktm posted is accurate (and there's no reason to believe it isn't), then Karen doesn't stand a chance at trial going up against the SEC if she was deliberately fudging. This is why she is likely to settle.
Actually, that only means you have the right strategy for the right time. If you were long small tech stocks between 1995 and 2000, you were the shit. After 2000, your account went to shit. So yes, your PnL can lie and make you think you know what you are doing when in fact you are just lucky. Now some guys recognize it and stop in time, the rest learn a painful lesson when they stick to the same strategy when the tides have already turned... ------------------------------------------- Here is another interesting thing about her strategy. The most boring year VIX-wise was 2013, the VIX never really spiking and staying between 10 and 23 all year. Yet in her 2014 video, she was complaining that 2013 was a hard year to make money because the VIX being so low. You would think that for her strategy a boring year like that is the best when the VIX is low and the market goes sideways... And she made 24% and 27% in the 2 funds, so what was she complaining about? Maybe she meant the premiums being so cheap with the low volatility, and she had to use max. margins to make those 2% monthly returns... That low volatility didn't spike until 2014 October, so that would explain that she was getting too comfortable with the high margin usage...