imo the only number that works on the daily consistently is the halfway back, which isn't a fib number at all. However, while I am not a fib guy, there does seem to be evidence that intraday these levels can be worked. I'm usually trading 3,6, 10 points or more on a trade rather than a few ticks. So for me, the only level I watch is the midpoint highs to lows as a 4 tick reaction off a fib number doesn't interest me. But I think the OP has a workable strategy that someone nimble of finger and disciplined as well could probably work for a profit. I would think that the OP would concede he is basically playing for a small reaction, and doesn't impute any special magical powers to fibs like some fib wizards do.
It's not workable as a price taker. Price rallies a point at the offer and you're covering at 0.75. Comms and fees. A half point of edge loss to microstructure. Win 0.50 and lose 1.00. The only way this works is if he lies to himself/us. I suspect he's trading futures bc he cannot afford to fund something legit beyond PDT.
I agree with everything you say here. That's why I'm not a scalper. He needs a very high win rate to make it work. I won't say it can't be done, but I can think of a lot easier ways to make a buck in the ES/NQ/ZB
I report my orders well before they are filled as a rule. How can you say that I'm lying to you? You can see for yourself IF YOU LOOK. BTW, why are you following this thread?
You think that I am going to motivated to vet your fills? How many of your fills were traded through? I would assume most/all. Doesn't matter. I am not accusing you of lying. I am stating that your edge loss is fully HALF of your target. Before commissions/fees.
You're not interested enough to "vet" my fills, but you're interested enough to criticize my style in perfect ignorance. Please leave the thread. You're getting nothing out of this except the joy of the put-down.
Please... I don't even check my own run and I supposed to feign interest in yours. Fine, it works... despite the 0.50 in negative edge on each trade. I don't want to see your mug under the 280 the next time I'm in Dogpatch. lol GL.
This is a mixed-bag trade. Yer effectively averaging down. That can be suicide if you are not well capitalized. The other thing to consider is to GTFO of your trades when your connection goes down. Have a landline phone by your side at the trading desk. Consider it a cost of doing business.
with scalping which i would call my trading, and it seems a lot like PeterH, its a for a few ticks/points. When i get into a trade i do not cross my fingers and jump into a trade hoping to get a 4 tick profit before the price hits my stop loss of 4 ticks. I get into a trade when the probability of price going my way is way more than it hitting the stop loss. Also its not just price action but what the price is doing at certain levels that you see drawn in the charts as shown by peterH. But it does not mean that price does not go against my trades but those situation are rare and few. sometimes price does move a few ticks beyond my entry price and in those situation i draw down if i am sure about the trade and sometimes my stops get taken and you just wait and get ready for next trade. But end of the day we will see more green than red as this is high probability scalping. I completely understand peterH trading style and if someone told me they get into trades where in they go for 5-10 points i wont call them a liar or strategy that does not work. Just because i don't have the stomach for such trades which will see price reversals does not mean i would criticize their method. Before i myself started scalping i could not fathom someone trading few points with very tight stops of a point of a half especially in ES. But now i scalp like this and completely understand few traders who are bewildered at such tight stops trading.