The chart above is a 1000 tick chart, but I have found that the time-frame doesn't make much difference. I draw the Fibonacci levels before the market opens and use the same ones all day. I think observers can see how price reacts to those levels on the chart. Maybe I'm wrong about that. Nonetheless, losing trades are rare using this system. I thought it would be obvious, but I'm told it's not. I have been told that my idea of journaling is different from others, that others will enter statements like "I got in here and got out there with profit". Of course there would be no way for readers to know whether the statements were actually true. My idea--which seems not so easy to display in the journal--was to put down the levels at which I was putting in orders BEFORE the price got there so that anyone watching could see what happened when the order was filled. There would be no doubting the veracity of claims of profit. For example, I currently have orders in to buy ES at 2903 and 2900.25
yes my time frame is also about a 1000 ticks, besides that how long do your trades last. Whats is the risk-reward ratio and stop loss ( if any). Also how do you set target prices, do you scale down once you reach your target or exit all. It will be nice to know such information as i see a lot of similarities but i tend to exit early and have not been able to stick to my take profit prices.
yes downward move seems to be stronger, i shorted at 06.25. but i exited after a point even though my bias is towards strong downward movement.
I'm stating that it's purely confirmation bias. His PNL would likely be indistinguishable had he simply randomly placed B/S with one handle stops/targets. Reinforced, erroneously, with every "close call" on the chart. Even if fibonacci worked... it would naturally lose resolution as you increase frequency. IOW, people can't make it work on the daily but let's throw dozens of lines on an intraday chart. I can't fathom daytrading ES and knocking on 80yo. I hope it's a hobby and money he can afford to lose.
My trades are generally quick and I find that having the target (four ticks) in place saves me worry . It's either win or lose, quickly--no decisions while in the trade. I admit that my strategy is a compensation for some of my own weaknesses, but it has proven to be very successful.
This strategy does not lose money. Some people go crazy when they see the word Fibonacci; luckily for me, it's their problem.