Despite what Nitro thinks, why not? I'm not interested in posting a free "Learn How to Trade Index Futures" essay but I will say the extreme divergences between the indices on a micro basis has created a challenging short term trading environment. It's a market of stocks. And yes often the initial tilt will come from a stock that's weighed heavier in the Dow than it's weighed in the S&P. Or for example a few DIA stocks go offered as OIH is going bid. The OIH strength will keep a bid in ES vs. YM. However if OIH comes right off then ES goes sellers right along with the Dow. Hell there's times when even ER2 leads ES. Off the August highs when the RUT was leading the market almost ANY move in ER2 was interpreted by the broader indices as having price discovery implications. Be Zen like. Nothing yet everything remains the same. Nothing yet everything works always.
very true for the er2 leading the es --- that worked decent at times {but it was usually during a buy/sell program event anyway so i was already entering trades from that information}.
It seems reasonable to me that an index with 30 components might reflect a change in sentiment a tad faster than one with 500. If you look back in hindsight it does not appear so because they have moved back into alignment after a few moments. I dont think it is backtestable.
TIKI --- DJ 30 tick is reported every 6 seconds. With 30 stocks the proportionate number above or below the line could be dramatically affected by missed events between the 6 second ticks vs. NYSE tick with a large # tick would be expected to have less error. Does YM and ER and TYX and QM lead the ES? Yes sometimes, always, and never as stated before; the relationship always changes. Good Luck
Time frames also matter. Even if you found something that consistently led by a second or two, it may have nothing to do with the movement you're trying to capture in a larger time frame.
PBST- what is your idea of "the indices on a micro basis" micro . . . time scale? "Be Zen like. Nothing yet everything remains the same. Nothing yet everything works always." . . . absolutely right
Of course you propose to teach us how to scalp for a modest fee LOL ! Actually I did not really use the right words, I have never really been a scalper in the true sense, I think scalping is an insane way to trade . One thing I am becoming convinced of is that price chart reading no matter how you do it is absolutely useless intraday, yeah often you will see a great pattern after the close of course but most of the time in real time you get chopped up. If you do not use price charts and TA I say I can believe someone making money consistently but I don't know what those techniques would be, market profile and similar stuff is probably used by a lot of people and I don't believe so much in volume. But the trouble and the risks to your whealth and heatlth is jus not worth the trouble. And again whatever edge you find is ephemeral no matter what you use, DOM, market profile, 3, 5 min charts multiple time frames etc.. On the floor, people scalping have a better chance to scalp succesfully probably (never been on the floor) because they see things we don't see, heck these floor traders are far from being geniuses
yes i sure in the heck would hope that Billy who runs this room charges a fee {$100 a month} ---- it would have no value if he did not because it would probably not be worth anything if it was free. Billy puts a ton of time and effort into what he is teaching and that is why i have been so impressed since i have been in this room the last few months. day after day --- profits, profits, profits ---- the ultimate measurement of a successful trading methodology. on any day i can scalp, position trade, or swing trade for profits --- it is my thoughts and attitudes that enable this and there is not at any time a threat to my health or wealth ---- none! btw, you better start believing in something or all you have is nothing! dude your attitude feels heavy to me --- trust me do not trade anything at this point until you believe in something.
"One thing I am becoming convinced of is that price chart reading no matter how you do it is absolutely useless intraday, yeah often you will see a great pattern after the close of course but most of the time in real time you get chopped up. " If you don't use a chart how can you make any assumptions of how the price not only is likely to react but has already reacted? What do you use instead? Even floor traders look at the charts. I agree there is a lot of "chop" on an intraday chart but thats only to be expected, i have never heard of anyone trading without using charts. If you are finding the markets too choppy to trade off a chart why not keep wider stops, a tight stop doesn't mean you are good at handling risk, thats one of the biggest misconceptions of trading. I don't mean to sound critical i'd genuinely like to know more about how you analyse the markets without a chart?