If you want to get hung up on math, I'll give you the kindergarten version. Futures are heavily leveraged so you can make a good pct of profit in comparison to what it takes to buy a contract daytime ($500 per w/my broker). That's 10% profit per point per contract in ES, 20% in ER2 of what you actually put in play. For a hypothetical day let's say tomorrow's range in the ES is 8 points. There will be 850,000 contracts traded. There will be several moves of more than 2 points during the day, probably at least 1 move of 4-6 points. If you can read the market order flow to discern when heavy buying or selling is coming in at either the H or the L You can consistently make 3-5 points trading 100 contracts going with the move. I watch hundred lots fly across the volume filter in ES at major turning points. Don't get hung up on why it can't be done. Watch people who do it successfully and learn from them. The original post was can you scalp 100 lots in the index futures for a point a day? My answer is "YES" if you can read the orderflow trading 100 lots fits your temprerment. I watch 100 lots come across my volume filter everyday. That's empirical evidence. I have no time for theorists telling me why reality isn't real. I don't need people who don't even trade futures telling me iwhat can and can't be done. When ignorance (a lack of knowledge) meets arrogance a fool is born. This list has more than it's fair share of fools. but I will not be among them. When I come across someone doing what I want to do and he is willing to teach me I listen and learn. You can go on through already "knowing" reasons something can't be done. But if you prefer wisdom, there are some good traders out there who teach that are not charlatans that for a fair price teach you the fundamentals needed. These are people who understand there are "no secrets." If they supplement their trading income with money made teaching me, may God bless them. The best money I've spent learning to trade was not my attempts to trade in ignorance, but in the quest of knowledge and truth and practicing it on a simulator. If interested in finding out who some of these people are PM me. If not, stay in stocks, currencies or whatever it is you trade, and good luck to you. Backtest TA indicators and re-invent the wheel.
of course i was speaking of myself there also ---- that was a BIG hump to get over in my psychological development.
I will assume you misread what I wrote so I will re-post. "Thursday and Friday last week produced price swings of almost 90 points in the E-Mini S&P, combined, for both days. In the last 10 trading days the swings have produced intra-ranges of over 350 points or an average of 35 points per day." The range was 21 points but the swings produced almost 4.5 times that much. I'm a stickler for accuracy. It's imparative for a trader to be precise whether trading 1 contract or 100.
You forgot one key ingredient in your remarks. Confidence created from consistency in the method you are trading. That is the only way you will work your way up to trading up to 50 contracts without going nuts. That and trading over 50 contracts is foolhearty if you have any consistency at all.
I don't understand. If you have consistency - why would trading 50 contracts or more be foolhearty? Of course you have to have confidence to trade 50 contracts or more - or even 5 contracts. I'm assuming that all the people who say it's a piece of cake to make at least 1 point per day are doing so with confidence. If not, then who cares what they say? If you are confident that you can make 1 point per day - then my math stands. There is no reason that you can't turn $2,000 into $954,536 in just one year - limiting yourself to 100 contracts max. But, for discussion sake - let's say you stop at only 20 contracts. That would turn the $2,000 into $207,922 in the first year - and continue to make $226,000 per year. That's 1 point per day, 20 contracts - $4.80 commish. About 10,000% per year return. Where are all these people making 10,000% per year return? I mean geez, that's only 1 point per day. Or am I totally misunderstanding - maybe people are not saying that making 1 point per day is easy?
You're misunderstanding alright. But math isn't your problem. Ignorance of the human psyche and its role in trading success is your mnor problem. No one is going to increase his lot size daily for 100 days from 1 to 100 lots. But Arrogance and the fears it masks are your major problems. Why are you afraid to investigate evidence that people are consistently making several points a day trading the eminis? Is it fear of losing an argument or fear of finding someone has figured out something the brilliant Quah can't? Can you not afford 1 month's hotcomm fee to see somthing done before your very eyes that you argue to be impossible? On vacation I went to a show of Chinese Acrobats. Spent more than 3 months worth of Hotcomm so my family could eat out and watch some feats performed that I didn't know were humanly possible. I felt I got my money's worth even though I have no desire to ever rest my chin on the soles of my feet while laying on my stomach. You OTOH, apparently think a point a day in the eminis something to desire were it attainable. You apparently think $250K annually is beyond reach trading eminis. Based on your remarks I conclude that 1 point a day would earn the great Quah more than he currently makes trading. Yet you won't buy one month's Hotcomm use to watch someone who averages several times that amount? I'll even let you win the $20 back. If you come to the same IOAMT Hotcomm room for a free 14 day trial, I'll bet you another $20 that Bill averages at least 3 points a day. Surely, a mere mortal can't do 3X what Quah says is impossible! Go ahead and remain at the height of insanity. Protect that fragile ego at all costs.
Big deal, watch someone make 3 points a day for 14 days. I want to see it over a period of time - like 1 or 2 years. Hell, I made 6 or 7 points a couple of days last week - but I'm not going to sit here and tell you that I make 6 points a day. But back to the chat room - I understand what you are saying about a newbie not increasing size. But here we have someone running a chat room - so obvisouly not a newbie, and not without the confidence in their system required to trade big size. I think that is obvious since they are running a chat room on their system. Surely this person has enough confidence to trade at least 100 lot size. As far as you thinking I think it can't be done - well, you are wrong. You imply that you know what I think by my responses, but your couldn't be more wrong. You have no idea what I think can be made and what cant. I know that huge amounts of money (% wise) can be made trading ES, so my ego has nothing to do with this - this has to do with statements like "no problem making 3 points everyday". You are right in one respect - unless I go to the chat room and see it for my self for a long period of time, I can't really say anything about it directly. Do you think there is actually room in the room for me? I mean, surely word has gotten out that there is a room where you can make 25%, 50% or more on your money everyday - there must be a waiting list while Hotcomm upgrades their internet capacity and servers....
BTW - I have one question which might explain some things.. Are these 3 points a day obtained via one round trip trade - or are the 3 points a day a cummulative total of many round trip trades, each making less than 3 points? If the 3 points is a cummulative number, how many round trip trades on average are executed?
if you go to the CME visitors gallery ... and watch the SP500 or Nasdaq100 pits ... I am sure some of those people you see in the pit trading are making more than 1 point a day ( or at least they own alot of CME shares pre IPO )