Thanks Tri & Allen. I've been editing my end of day data to jive with the 9:30EST market opening. Glad I won't have to do much reverse engineering. So - if you're looking for more participation from a novice I think I've got just a few more question before I have this whole futures trading game down pat... Suchas... I'm in the very beginning steps of developing my first trading system - following the approach of Van Tharp's book, "Trading Your Way to Financial Freedom. I've read a few other books including Market Wizards, and even studied a few suspect "get rich quick" trading systems hyped online. Anyway it occurs to me that I haven't a clue as to how to actually build a system and integrate it with a trading platform and a charting package. I'm able to dump data out of my current trading platform (myTrack - yeah I know) and bring it into Excel, where I'm quite able to set up basic, average-based calculations, and generate a printed set of buy & sell numbers for myself. Fine for now, but I'd like to get to the point of being able to build more complex algorithms,back test them, and integrate them into a real-time trading platform. Cinch right? So - are there any books, courses, or tutorials you guys would recommend to someone at my level, interested in taking a methodical approach to building such a system, and building his analytical skills along the way? - btw - Allen I was in your room earlier this week for a few days trial - great stuff! I hope to be able to fit it in my budget to participate regularly soon.
Well i was on track for a great week until i got derailed on Friday. Just could not get anything going. Bad timing for the most part as i got stopped out on 2 shorts early somehow. Anyway, even with one my worst days of the month on Friday I was able to keep positive weekly results. Here they are: June 17-21 Number of trades = 82 Net points total = +37 System Setups = 19 System points = +7 System win rate = 45% This mirrors last weeks performance pretty closely which was poor for the system but good for scalping. Still pretty nice overall monthly numbers, which i will post below, for both the system and my scalping trades also. June Results Number of trades = 240 Net points total = + 134 ( +8.9 per day ave, per contract ) System Setups = 65 System Net points = +65 System Win rate = 48% This is decent for the month of June which has been a terrible month for the market in general and had many gaps to contend with. The system is averaging a net of +4 per day which is slightly lower than i would like. My scalping has vastly improved over the past 5 weeks and with this in addition to the system is making for some nice returns. The System is up +1300 per contract before commission. My total net is +2700 per contract before commission. Both are pretty decent totals in my book. AllenZ
Allen, when you say "scalping" what time frame are you talking about? You're not playing for ticks are you?
When i am scalping the mini's I am generally watching a 3 min chart if any. For the most part i am looking for contra trend entries near S/R and looking for a 2-3 point move of these levels. This is opposed to the setups i look for that i try to get 6-12 points from. My setups attempt to take advantage of consolidation breaks, either fading or going with them, when one of these setups stops out i can usually flip it and enter in the opposite direction for a couple of points. This is another strategy i employ for scalping. AllenZ
Are these results from trades called in your index room? And do you call any of the scalps in your room?
version 77 - Yes, the system trades that i refer to are the ones taught in the index room. The trades called in the index room are in the form of QQQ trades as they are educational and meant to show the trades i am taking and the reasons behind them. My scalp trades are personal trades, and since i really dont have a definable system i am not inclined to call them. I do however teach some of techniques i use for scalping, however i only suggest it to the traders with more experience because for newer traders scalps can turn into investments. ( you know what i mean, members of SBA ) The QQQ's trade in lock step with the futures and with the lower commission structure and better leverage they are what i use to trade the calls, some use options, and then many use the QQQ's themselves. I started out trading the QQQ and switched to futures once I was happy with the results I was getting and this is what i try to teach people to do. I found it to be a very smooth transition. The focus of my website is to teach traders several things: 1. Patience 2. discipline 3. have a trading plan 4. learn technical analysis 5. risk control 6. have no directional bias 7. having realistic goals ( not in this order ) I try to show traders that very few people in this business for the long run make money everyday. The ones in this for the long haul know ( or at least it is my contention ) there are cycles and as professional traders we ride them when we are hitting on all cylinders and lay back when things are against us. My goal is not to make money everyday, but to build the necessary skills to make money over the coarse of every month, quarter and year. New traders tend to focus on making too much ( taking too much risk ), making money everyday, and being down on themselves over losses. Losses are a part of the game and that is one of the most important things you can learn. If you trade long enough you will be wrong about the same as you are right ( 50% win rate ) so then it just comes down to the little things as traders that we need to really focus on. Anyway i could go on forever. ( but i wont ) AllenZ
Doing my midweek update thursday night as this has been rough week for me. Been getting stopped out of trades by very small amounts just to watch em run right to my target. This happens sometimes and you just cant take it personally. Frustration is a part of trading and we must work hard to not it let it sway our approach to the markets. I found myself with a directional bias a couple of days this week and whenever i do that it adversely effects my trading. Anyway here are my results this week through Wednesday. Number of Trades = 31 Net Points total = 0 System Setups = 14 System Net points = +9 Win Rate = 46% Through Wednesday I was breakeven before commission. My scalping has hurt me this week although I have been able to cut down on the number of trades. Really just not my week and i am still having a good month so I am not likely to push things into months end. AllenZ
I sent this one on my clients newsletter a couple of days ago and thought to share it with you: The last few days a few factors just kept jumping at me with different clients and prospects: 1. If you never day-traded (traded) futures before - even if you traded stocks - treat your first few days/weeks/months as a SURVIVAL ACT , I can't emphasize it enough. What you know 3 months from know and the initial experience will help you. make sure you survive to trade another day.... place STOPS 2. Bottom line - Don't worry about how MUCH you could have made, should have made etc. just make sure that your avg. daily/weekly/monthly net results are positive and leading me to the third point... 3. SET GOALS! - Very few in this business make it successfully, but if you don't set goals and work to achieve them, you are just shooting randomly. The following is transmitted with permission from: www.JimWyckoff.com The Psychology of Trading Jim Wyckoff In past articles, I have told my readers about the quality trading seminars I have attended through the years and how beneficial they are to anyone seeking knowledge and wisdom on the road to becoming a successful trader. The other night I was browsing through the workbook from a Technical Analysis Group (TAG) conference I attended in 1996. These TAG workbooks are packed with valuable information presented by all the speakers (usually 20 or more) at each conference. As I was thumbing through this particular workbook, there was a common theme espoused by the majority of presenters at the conference: In order to succeed at trading, it's not only important to strive to learn more about markets and trading tools, but it's also very important for a trader to know himself or herself. This is part of the all-important--but sometimes overlooked--aspect of "trading psychology." I will admit that when I first got into this fascinating business, I was skeptical of the whole "trader psychology" thing. My main concern at that time was learning as much about markets and technical analysis as I could--and my trading mentality or psychology would take care of itself. However, the more I learned about the markets and about trading, the more I realized human nature and psychology play huge roles in both. The following are some valuable "nuggets" regarding trading psychology that I pulled out of the TAG workbook. It's my hope that one or more of these "nuggets" will help you better understand your own trading psychology and the importance of psychology in trading markets. Remember that becoming a profitable trader is a journey, not just a destination. The perfect trader does not yet exist. Try to become a better trader each day and enjoy the progress you make. Concentrate on learning the craft of technical analysis and on improving your trading skills, rather than focusing solely on the amount of profit or losses in your trading. Congratulate yourself and feel good about a trade when you have done what you were supposed to do, according to your trading plan--regardless of the profit or loss on the trade. Don't get overly excited about the winning trades or too depressed about the losing trades. Try to maintain an even keel and a professional outlook regarding your trading. Do not expect certainty in a trade. You are looking for a preponderance of evidence, not proof beyond the shadow of a doubt. The pain of standing aside and missing a good trade that your method told you to take is much worse than the pain of losing on a trade that you entered and exited properly and according to your trading plan. Your own life experiences shape how you think about trading. If your first experience with trading was a negative one, the odds are high that you will not trade in that particular market again for a long time--and maybe never. The psychological impact of loss and defeat can be much greater and last much longer than the effects of physical pain. If you were not defeated psychologically by a negative trading experience, then the loss does not have such a negative and lasting impact. Education plays an important role in shaping the way traders think about trading. A formal business education can give you an edge in understanding the economy and the market in general--but it is no guarantee of success in trading. Most of the information you learned in a formal college setting will not give you the specific knowledge necessary to be a successful trader. To succeed in trading, you must learn to perceive opportunity where most others see none--and you must seek out the information which gives you the knowledge necessary for success. Your ego and winning can make you broke. Winning can create powerful emotions that distort reality. The more you win, the better you feel, and your ego takes over. The joy of winning is what gamblers seek. A gambler will lose as many times as necessary just for the thrill of winning once. Always remember this: You are the sole person responsible for winning or losing in trading. Don't blame the market or your broker. Losses are an opportunity to focus on whatever problem occurred during the trade. Don't get caught up in personal denial. A successful trader quantifies, analyzes and truly understands and accepts risk. Emotional and psychological acceptance of risk is what determines your mental state in each trade. Individual risk tolerance and preferred trading timeframe make each trader unique. Select a trading methodology that reflects your preferred timeframe and risk tolerance. The market is not physical. It's an amalgamation of the mindset of all trading participants. The daily tug-of-war between the bulls and the bears reveals what they are thinking on a daily basis. Make sure to look at the market's close in relation to the session high and low. (Note: Many times in my Daily Market Updates you'll notice that I say the market closed near the session high or near the session low. I do this because it's one determinant of the near-term strength of the market. Never buy just because the price is low, or sell just because the price is high. Never average a losing trade. Don't become impatient with the market. Always have a good reason for initiating every trade. Remember, the markets are always right. Traders need to listen to the market. To listen effectively to the market, traders need to know and pay attention to their trading methods, but also pay just as much attention to themselves as they pay to their charts and the market. The trader's challenge is this: Learn who you actually are, and then consistently and consciously develop the qualities that allow you to trade well. As traders, the more we can detach ourselves from the emotions of hope, greed and fear, the better our chances for trading success. Why are there hundreds of good technical analysts but few good traders? Because they need to spend more time on their personal psychology than their analytical methodology. "If I had eight hours to chop down a tree, I'd spend six hours sharpening my axe." -Abraham Lincoln I like this maxim, because it is similar to trading: Research and learning are very important. Preparation for trading takes much longer than executing and watching the trade. The market has far more patience than the majority of traders. There is an old saying that the market will do whatever it takes to drive the largest amount of traders crazy. Trends can persist as long as there are traders fighting them. Don't fight the tape. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This week was a strange week. Everyday seemed the same for me with stops being hit then reversing off the stop. I am not going to worry about it after only one week of this type of action. If this keeps up next week there may be some need for slight adjustments to the system. Often times when the market becomes more volatile it is harder to keep tight stops in looking trend moves. Anyway here are my weeks results and below them will be the results for the entire month of June. June 24-28 Number of Trades = 49 (system trades + scalps) Net points = -8.5 System Setups = 24 System Net Points = -2.5 Win Rate = 40% I trimmed back my number of trades because I tend to scalp less when I am losing and have a lack of feel for the market. Overall a VERY poor week in an overall good month for me. This was my first down week since May 3 so not too much to worry about for now. Here are the results of my trading for the month of June. Number of Trades = 283 Net Points = +125 System Setups = 89 System Net Points = +62.5 System Win Rate = 47% After a great first week of the month the system treaded water the next 3 weeks posting a relatively poor performance after the first week. Overall good results for both the system as well a the scalping I added to it. My intention in developing a system was to ave a net of 20-30 points a week and for June it netted an ave of almost 16 points a week. In scalping I was just trying to find a way to add to this total which this month i have certainly done. Here are some stats for the month: Daily Net = +6.25 System Daily Net = +3.125 June Net per Contract = $2500 ( before commission ) System Net Per Cont. = $1250 ( before commission ) This is fairly poor month of results for this system but i have put it out there for people to see. If this has been of interest I will continue and do one for the month of July. I have enjoyed putting this work into reporting the system results as well as my own, it has forced me to really look at things even harder because i know it is in the "publics eye". Thank you. AllenZ