AllenZ, thanks for starting this thread. I'm posting this mostly so I'll get notified when you post. But I thought I would say I spent one of the free days in your chat room sometime last year even before I had a trading account and you did very well calling moves that day. I'm planning to come back for the free trial when I have time just to see if you can repeat that performance (just to add pressure, but I guess you're used to it if you've got the guts to run a chat room). Right now I've decided to try to trade the ES because I have a few books on trading the S&P. I'm curious about any thoughts you might have on the differences in the SP and ES. From my reading it seems the locals can exert a lot of influence on the SP during slow times and run it up or down. Since there ES doesn't have a pit and the trade sizes are posted for all to see, do you think it's more orderly and that it would follow the general market a little closer? I don't even know if institutions and the like trade the minis or use them in their hedging strategies. Acually, if anybody know of any literature that deals with the e-mini I'd like to know about it (not broker literature, thanks).
I'm thinking about joining your room and I was just wondering where I could see examples or explanations of your exact setups so I could follow along in the room. Can you explain what you mean by "little" discretion?
In your second post on this thread, you said that a 4-6 point stop is only risking like 2%. How did you get to that number? I trade the NQ's using 1500 as initial margin requirement...., since 2000 dollars would give a 1 point to 1% ratio. 1500 would give a 1 point to 1.25 %approximately. If you got stopped on a 4 pointer, you would lose 5%, 6 points would be 7.5%. Those are the numbers I've come up with, and I certainly know from experience that a 6 point move against you will take a sizable chunk out of your capital. if my math is incorrect pls correct me. I've given up math since highschool graduation, and I now only estimate things that require more than simple addition or subtraction.
I really want to thank you all for keeping this thread going many people here on Elite ask all the time for experienced traders to give some insight and advice, I started this thread to do just that. But in order to do it i need people to ask questions, comment on my suggestions and theories, and post their own experiences. So I thank you for doing that. nljones5-- The ES pretty much trades in lock step to the Big futures contract from what i have seen ( maybe I am wrong cause I don't trade them ). Trading the ES is tough game imo, as the ranges are smaller, moves are faded at a higher frequency, and locals are much more in control of the movement than you might think. You need a twisted mind ( so to speak ) to trade em as failed patterns are often the best movers and buying breakdowns and selling breakouts often fair better than more obvious trades. Only advice is don't be conventional, think like a local, act like a local and you may do fine. Be very aware of S/R and don't get caught up on Level 2 or market depth. liltrdr -- I am afraid I am kind of a jerk about this one. I don't post setups on the website for all to see. I only use a few setups and I tend to be pretty secretive about them ( except to members ). members of the room understand them as I explain them over and over again. I don't want someone to read a setup and think they can get the idea just from that and i prefer to explain my reasoning and such in an open forum so people can ask questions and such. It takes more than just reading them to fully understand them, you must see them in action day after day to get the full effect ( man this sounds like selling, which i really despise ) let me just answer simply they are not on the website but I fully explain them in the room. As far as discretion, the setups I use usually are cut and dry as far entry/exit. On occasion there will be some factors that make them a little less clear and in these cases one must use some judgment to determine direction of trade from the trigger. Meaning if it is a breakout with a moving average near it may require some discretion whether to take the trade, let it pass, or fade it ( play it contra trend ). Every trigger sets a trade in motion sometimes the trick is direction. lundy -- 1. As far as account size goes you look to have 5k+ so even if you widened stops to 4-6 points you would only be risking 2% or less on a trade which is within decent parameters. This is what i said and it was answering a question posed by Bronxs who has a 5k account so for him it was a 2% risk. In reply to your post the margin requirement is $1500 to trade one contract but that doesn't mean by any stretch of the imagination should you start trading with that much. If you do you are setting yourself up for failure (imo). To trade the style I do and keep proper risk parameters in line, like risking no more than 2% per ave stop ( not per trade, as some trades may require 2-3% risk, this is my concept if you need clarification let me know ) you should have approx 5k per contract you wish to trade. So, your math is correct for a $1500 account but in no way, shape, or form do I advocate trading with that little even in starting out as you are really not even giving yourself a chance. AllenZ
After tuesday or Wednesday i generally do an update of my weeks performance to see if I am on track for the week or if i am skewing away from the plan. Here is my update: June 10 and 11 Number of trades = 21 Rt's Net Points = 20.5 System Setups = 7 System Net points = 20 System Win Rate = 57% Ave loss per stop = 4.5 Ave gain per win = 8.3 Once again i see scalping for me is futile. In 14 non system based trades i am net .50 which is a loss after commission although a very small one. Scalping still just keeping me amused till the setup comes along. As far as being on track, i am averaging 10 trades a day which is better than last weeks 15 although still higher than i would like. Ave loss is a bit high but offset by a higher ave gain than last week. All in all, I feel as though I am on track and no adjustments are necessary at this time. AllenZ
Speaking of S/R. I know how to figure the daily pivot point, and the projected high and low. I can even figure out where the intraday s/r is after it has bounced off it a few times. How do the local figure the intraday points before the market opens? And, generally, do these intraday levels carry over into the next day(assuming the market didn't drop 20 pts)? Thanks in advance. As I type this, the market just bounced off 1004, the projected low, which I already knew. 45 minutes ago it just blew thru it, after bouncing on it (or a tick above) a few times.
when it comes to S/R levels, I did not see any one better than Al Bicoff. Todays levels are posted below: S&P M NASDAQ M RESISTANCE RESISTANCE 1,056.00 1,249.00 1,052.50 1,230.00 1,047.00 1,209.00 ******* 1,041.00 ******* 1,188.00 ****** 1,035.00 ****** 1,173.00 1,029.50 ***** 1,154.00 1,024.00 **** 1,132.00 ***** 1,019.90 *** 1,115.00 CLOSE 1,014.20 CLOSE 1,104.00 SUPPORT SUPPORT ** 1,009.00 ***** 1,082.00 *** 1,005.00 1,056.00 ***** 999.00 ****** 1,048.00 ****** 994.00 ******* 1,022.00 ******* 988.10 998.00 981.50 977.00 976.00 960.00 970.00 936.00
i suspect that anyone who knows how to trade off levels, knows the right levels the levels represent a small percentage of the knowledge needed to trade profitably off them hence why some people make their bucks selling level data