I see that there seems to be a little bit of interest - and I will go ahead with this idea. First let me say that I am curious as to why there is no negativity, (thankful but curious) it seems that there is negativity towards almost everthing here and I am really hopeful that we can keep it out of this journal. A couple of responses - BondTrader - I agree with the fading the trend part of your statement. This is almost completely a countertrend idea, that also catches the change if one hangs on (I do not usually) prox - That is exacly what I had in mind. I keep a daily log with #of trades per market, win/loss %; it also has daily %, weekly % and total number of trade %. I won't go into all the past #'s in detail but will start anew (here only) at 0. Thanks to the rest of you for your interest and I will try and post a chart showing the setups I will be looking for and trading ideas in my next post. Make 'em pretty, Chris
Ok - first the chart and the setup- Below is the chart with a few of the entries noted. Setup is as follows - 1 Min chart (waiting to test on tick charts when Q finally gets them) 20,2.2 Bollinger Bands 20 period EMA 5,2,1 Stochastic 85,15 20,3,1 Stochastic 85,15 STRICT rule entries - Short setup - only two conditions MUST be met, well actually three - 1. Price penetrates the BB band on the upside. 2. The 5,2,1 is above the 85 3. Price must move below the bar that penetrated the BB band (the previous high bar) by one tick, and NOT also create a new high. A sell order LIMIT is placed at the low of the previous bar - can also be placed one tick below - matter of choice - the limit will miss a few moves..but....immediatly (if not sooner) upon fill a target and stop are placed; this is why a trading software like BT is nice (What happende to Jasper - was looking forward to trying it?) Using BrackeTrader a target is set for 1 point and a stop is also set for 1 point. However I will often hit the smaller target button if price does not go my way QUICKLY! This is a scalp after all and any profit is a good trade. I do not trail stops or move them. I may widen an initial stop to a max of 1.25 if the high of the bar so dictates. A buy is exactly the opposite. These are the strict rules. Anticipation can be had and is often the cause of many losers on a good trending day. As you can tell this is countertrend trading at best - will catch the change if one wants to hang on - but I got tired of hanging on and taking losers so I bail and keep some profits. Yes the losers are bigger than the winners - but the win/loss is 80%ish thus it can be profitable. Very simple, yes?Thoughts, questions, comments. Make 'em pretty, Chris
DblArrow: if the target and the stoploss are both set at 1 point upon trade entry why do you say the losers are bigger than the winners???
Technically..... If you are in at 900 and out at 900 are you even? No you are down $4.80. Is this alot? No but it is money out of the account. 1 point win = $45.20 1 point loss = $(54.80) diff = $(9.60) I hang out in room where a few of the better traders do not consider a b/e trade in their daily totals - they figure there was no decision on the trade. I disagree, they still take money out of your account. But to answer your question, more often than not I will hit the smaller target button and take .5 to .75. But Friday mornings chart sure does not show this to be necessary! Make 'em pretty, Chris
With a slight adaption this system could also be used to take trades that go in the direction of the trend. I.e. use any kind of trend indicator you like and enter in the direction of the trend if the stochastic moves out of the 15/85 area.