The math does not agree. Because of the noise in ES the majority of the time is spent moving sideways. Hence you are better off trading the channel than trying to anticipate when it will break out or down.
Volente, as you know, I mostly position trade. Here is a quote from me earlier in the latter half of 2006 with regard to ES and is a trade that I am still long in--Note: I am not playing for 20 and 30 points. In addition, by comparing 5 6 point losses with one 20 or 30 point gain is static analysis. --I push positions and increase size as you know.: "I got long a little on this pullback . I am long at 1300.25 with 5 units. My stop is 1256.50. I will look at lower levels to perhaps add positions. In any event, this is a longer term trade here. I will have to see the market give clear reversal signals on the daily chart or perhaps the hourly combined with signals from the daily before I short. " Current price 1438.00 albeit it's the March contract now.
I agree that on shorter term charts like daily, there is quite a bit of sideways, but on weekly and especially monthly, there is significant trending ability.
B1S2 - I enjoy reading your posts and have lurked on this thread for a bit. I agree with your statement here - it really depends on what type of timeframe you are looking at. I personally trade intraday only and look at minute charts, which are obviously much different than a weekly or monthly chart. I can see your point on letting the type of trades you take run, but for myself, I go for small, fixed price targets and then out. There's just too much congestion on the intraday plays.
Bull1Sell2, Thanks for your comment; it's not clear for me how you add positions: do you scale with 5-3-1...5-8-11 or other methods? Thank you, Bernard
Scaling out is a play that is employed by a trader who is overextended or needs the profits to bring their account back close to breakeven etc. The big wins that will put the account out of jeopardy are attained when scaling out is not employed. However, the scared money cannot see this.
There are many strategies that one can trade. However, there is only one right way to trade. Cut losses short, let winners run to full maturity. This is the only correct way to trade regardless of the strategy employed.