"Scaling out" is inferior behavior

Discussion in 'Strategy Building' started by Buy1Sell2, Oct 18, 2006.

Do you scale out of positions?

  1. I always scale out

    113 vote(s)
    14.1%
  2. I scale out most of the time

    228 vote(s)
    28.5%
  3. Most of the time, I do not scale out

    189 vote(s)
    23.6%
  4. I never scale out

    270 vote(s)
    33.8%
  1. billp

    billp

    Thanks. I highly suspect that you were out near the highs instead of waiting for your stop loss to be taken out. If even half of your stop loss were to be taken out, then this method will not be good as one has given up a reasonably large portion of the profits back (regadless of whatever time frame it is)


     
    #561     Oct 30, 2006
  2. B1S2, you are skewing the probabilities in your favor to make your point. As you say, "it's simple math, and the numbers don't lie". I posted this before and you either didn't see it, or didn't respond to it. Using different probabilities makes scaling out much more profitable than not.

    TNG
     
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    #562     Oct 30, 2006
  3. Buy1Sell2

    Buy1Sell2

    I saw it, but the format wasn't good. Probablilities come into play when designing what you think the target should be optimally. Once you have done that, then scaling out is the wrong thing to do. I agree that probablities are important, however they are a step that is taken before the trade occurs. Once the trade occurs, you must allow the trade to run full to the optimal target.
     
    #563     Oct 30, 2006
  4. the idea that there is *one* "optimal target" for all modalities, time frames, instruments traded, methodologies, etc. is where your logical fallacy is.

    but again, you are either astoundingly ignorant, or a troll
     
    #564     Oct 30, 2006
  5. Buy1Sell2

    Buy1Sell2

    Optimal targets are different for every time frame and set up. Once a trader has determined the optimal target for their own particular set up and time frame, then the trade must be allowed to reach maturity with the full position on, not part of it.
     
    #565     Oct 30, 2006
  6. The math in that example is undeniable. It proves that scaling out is (much!) more profitable at times than not scaling out. The only determining factor is your % chance of hitting each target.

    TNG
     
    #566     Oct 30, 2006
  7. Buy1Sell2

    Buy1Sell2

    Directly from the Turtles Trading rules
     
    #567     Dec 15, 2006
  8. Buy1Sell2

    Buy1Sell2

    Also directly from the Turtles Trading Rules:
     
    #568     Dec 15, 2006
  9. stormins

    stormins


    And what If it doesnt reach your target and you close your position when you have to along with everybody else heading for the exit costing you $$ (since you are still full boat)?? Oh wait I guess you are just the seer that KNOWS exactly where the top/bottom of that move is, "maturity" as you so aptly called it ???
    How arrogant can one be to think they can "determine the optimal target" and expect the market to cooperate every time?? No trader worth his salt can honestly say that they hit the top or bottom tick every time. As a matter of practicality you either sell too early ...or too late. Scaling allows you to do both.
     
    #569     Dec 16, 2006
  10. I agree with you 100%, but he will come back with that you have faulty optimal targets if you can't depend on the stock getting to the target. I scale in and out of almost every stock. It is PART of my strategy. I also have more than one target for every stock. I follow my rules, period. If that is inferior behavior, then well, I love being inferior.
     
    #570     Dec 16, 2006