I disagree, the non scaler will still lose because of commissions. The scaler has already locked in his profit so even if it comes back to breakeven on the remaining half he still ends up making money on the trade unlike the non scaler.
Scaling is all about finding a "better (aka current/updated) maturity area", only you are doing it in real time. What you are doing by scaling is placing greater weight on the results of recent trades, while giving less weight to the result of past trades (where the "optimal" exit has been calculated from) -- an analogy would be an EMA vs an MA on "maturity", so to speak.
At the point wher you scale out and I stay in and we both move stops to breakeven, there is no chance that you, scale out trader will have a higher winning percentage. However, you will have less chance to profit on the trade. If I am a breakeven strategist, it would make more sense to leave the whole trade on.
That is a good point, So is scaling out still inferior if it is done at your initial point target ? In my example I told you of how I sometimes scale out at 2 points on ES and let the rest ride, Your example assumes that you scale out early every time before your point target is reached.
On one single trade , yes, but not over the whole of his trading. He will have defined the place to get out that gives decent expectancy over the long haul and the additional profits will more than pay for commissions.
He must assume this, to make his theory correct. He is always right in "retrospect", where he needs to stay in order to continue the argument.
2 pts was the mature profit target in this example. That wouldn't be scaling out, that would be letting the trade mature.
That is where you are mistaken, if I have already taken profit on half, I can not lose on the trade after commissions. You will lose on the trade because of transaction costs. I will never lose money period on a scale out trade once half is taken off the table. You will lose money if it comes back to your entry.
so answer the question, Is scaling out inferior if you let it hit your profit target and then start to scale out ? I understand your point about cutting yourself short and selling at only half your initial point target.