Okay, so those of you have grown to know me know me as - to put it diplomatically - prone to change sentiment quickly. But this is not about me. It's about you, and what I've learned since beginning to trade in June of 06, and because of a lot of feedback I've gotten here (for those who think ET is a joke, I tend to disagree strongly; I've learned a lot by reading many posts and threads here - ones that I often don't even post in, because I feel out of my league). So, I went all in back in June of 06, and built about a 36% profit through late November, when I began scaling out. I missed a run from December through January, and began scaling back in in late Jan/early February. Since then, I racked up exactly 12.27% in profits (not great, but not bad for a 2.2 month span). I realize I am engaging in market timing, and despite my long term bullishness, I do think we are likely to see short term chop, possibly severe at times, between now and Q3. I'd rather not run on the hamster wheel during that time, and am willing to risk being wrong, given that I see little upside short term gains, and lots of short term risks here. I may be wrong, but I am making a case. I am trying to hold on to three core positions, mainly by playing call options with a minimum of a June expiration (a couple out longer). It's going to be an interesting next three months I think! Please feel free to tell me if you think I'm way off base, or making fundamental errors here in not sticking with the tape which technically has not yet been broken despite the February 27th ugliness we experienced.
Am I am perceiving things correctly? Is the business media telling the world that earnings are just great, when in reality, they are not? There is some real ugliness out there.