I need to find a good source that delivers a reliable earnings report calendar ahead of time so you can watch "stuff." The bid-ask on Feb SBUX 22.50 calls yesterday was .05-.10 or so...todays close on a ridiculous gap session was .95-1.00. Do the math fellas, that is a new phat car overnight on a measly $5,000 speculative play. THere is some open interest today, so who knows if you had been watching yesterday. Lots of calls appeared to be bought yesterday on the 20.00 strike, obviously much more expensive................
This is nothing. I was in a casino the other night and there was a guy who played roulette. He placed $5,000 on number 13 and guess what - he won! Man, can you imagine the car he can buy from that win? I mean he could even do that every day. Its so simple. Just place $5.000 on the right number...
This is a jist and witty post. Let me give you a brief insight. Once upon a time, I had been working and unable to really follow the market with any consistency. One night I scanned the option exchanges for daily activities. There had been two or three single block put purchases for an absolute ridiculous amount on the ask, for SEBL, I think it was like 70000 contracts even, insane. Position cost millions to open. Sure thing, next morning, SEBL plunged on a gap down. Essentially being able to piggy back off that put activity, you would have been able to quickly see the chart on SEBL and how technically week it was, etc. You know the drill. THe short of it is, we have had a very cold winter this far. Unseasonbly so. People are drinking a heck of allot more coffee this year. Call activity on SBUX was up 100% ahead of earnings, while nothing happened on the put side. Putting these factors together lines you up for a decent chance. It is a heck of allot easier than trying to hit a number at the casino.
Just on that note alone I would be thinking of buying the puts on SBUX, or the synthetic put, as cold weather has a nasty habit of ruining coffee crops, causing the price of coffee to go up and SBUX profit margins to go down. But that is just me... nitro
Nice call. I just read this morning in the Financial Times that traders in London are doing just that, going short on coffee futures. SBUX has a little more room. It should run out of steam in the mid $20's. Let me give a quick shout out here and thank catman & just for those links.
Most coffee comes from southern hemisphere, so you have to worry about cold winters in July and August.
Tell me what I'm missing here please. If futures traders in London are SHORTING coffee that would indicate they expect the price to drop which, if true, could improve SBUX bottom line. Don't think I'd be looking at puts if that's the case.