I never wanted to say that those theories are wrong, buy through the years of trading I tested many sound concepts, not profitable though. I`m not saying they were wrong ! Just not suitable for real trading. For the markets I agree with the concept of living being. Thus long term prediction must be tricky, even patterns formed on the way can absolutely make sense. Long term concepts are popular, because they make people`s dreams come true... But dreamers have no chance to survive in the markets.
say what you want about the Wave... but? "bob prechter, in my eyes can do no wrong" ? is that all you wanted to tell us 'long? doesn't seem like that was worth starting a thread about... so what if he's NOW (finally) admitted he made a wrong call, he can't erase the history that had him dearly clinging to his incorrect position throughtout the greatest bull run in history. he is just full of shit and it appears his sole aim is to sell a new book to cater to the current market tone. i'm surprised that someone that's been in the markets as long as you, and has intellectual capacity to make it through med school, can't see the obvious facts of reality about this man and his method.
There are lots of people far smarter than inandlong who believe in much crazier things than elliot wave theory
elliott wave theory is always a religious matter among traders. A bit like Apple against Microsoft type of thing (or linux vs windows, pick your religion). seriously, I agree it has little predictive power imo. but the difficulty lies in the traders. there is a big confusion between predicting (to know what will happen) and evaluating odds (probabilities of an event). this is mixed with the holy grail attitude. wave theory is supposed to be something that works, something certain (says who ?). if it is about odds, it is not surprising that several analysts would have different views and weighting on the odds. E Wave is only partly objective. one of the big problem being the difficulty to separate different time frames. On the bright side, it is very good at detecting a trend move and a congestion. Not that you need such a complex theory to cover that ! However, several would agree with me that knowing in what phase you are is very very valuable information. In pure day trading, it has little value (which is part of all the anger from day traders against it). this is because not enough sub waves are usable and the odds are not as well defined as they could be. but you would be surprised how many traders use E Wave (not on the markets you trade probably).
regarding the wave, I find it to be a great tool to identify market conditions, but if you are going to use it to predict moves, then your going to be stuck in the mud. I have never met a successfully ellitican that traded 100% the wave and made consistent money. Please advise if someone knows of one..... To me, trading is about results and not theory. I have read so much on theory that should work, but find little that does.
You say...."knowing in what phase you are is very very valuable" so obviously you accept that markets conform to elliot waves and if that is the case why say that it has little predictive power?
I do think it conforms, you read me right. However, I disagree with theorists who try to tell what the next move is and what size it will have. For instance, knowing that you are in a congestion and counter trend move, does not tell you how long it will last. Those who try to predict that, usually fail. I concentrate on what IS happening. when the congestion area IS violated, it is a good time to try (odds again) to play the trend present just before this congestion. that's an example of the difference I make between predicting and trading. tntneo
Some of this has probably already been said, I didnt take the time to read all of the posts. Here is my experience with elliot wave. They make a prediction - if things don't turn out as they said, then the offer an "alternative wave count" to explain what happened. They rarely admit they are wrong, which is what you are in trading if your prediction does not come true. IMO, the number one skill of a trader is how quick can you admit you are wrong - the desire to explain away mistakes and remain in denial is the major killer of traders/investors. Wave counting does not take into account unforseen circumstances that are inevitable like 9/11. Pretcher has some interesting social commentary, but IMO worse than useless for trading
nitro, "mastering elliott wave" is a very unique way of interpreting the wave. (the ONLY way in my view) check it out on amazon for more details. trade on, surf
The only thing to be gained by mastering "Elliot Wave Theory" is the ability to write a newsletter and sell it to the novices ...