I think it is a mistake to use Elliott Wave to "predict" the market, nothing and nobody can do that successfully. However, Elliott Wave does allow one to "understand" and trade the market very profitably by using the fundamentals. The beauty in the principle is you don't need to know which count your in to make $$$.
Elliott waves apparently are not the only waves some people used to predict the markets. I was looking for a wave analysis program on ebay the other day and it came up with what I guess must be some sort of Fourier analysis. And all I actually want is a little piece of software that will solve the wave equation for one isolated ion and give me a graphic representation of it...
That is the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth. Also a big part of learning to trade correctly involves learning proper discipline.
Exactly. Assuming one is a trader rather than an investor, and assuming he has a plan, and assuming that he follows his plan, a projection of eventual market direction at some point in the future is irrelevant. Unless, of course, his plan is to take only one side of the market and ignore all counter-movements. Which brings the question of why "inandlong" isn't named "inandshort"? --Db
there is one person who truly understands and teaches elliott wave theory. his name is glen nealy. www.neowave.com his book was a major influence on my trading system. best, surf
a good question, a fair question, and a question with a simple answer. It is a name I chose almost 4 years ago and have continued to use it. As far as investor v trader, since we are splitting hairs, it is difficult for me to fit the common definition of investor to a person who is very short the market. Divestor doesn't work, as that would be put the person out of the market, or at least one who is selling his holdings v shorting them. I'm not even sure if investor is a valid term anymore, as it relates to the stock market. Maybe Warren Buffett is an investor because of the size stake he takes in a company as a result of the thorough review of the fundamentals he performs. What is the difference or what are the differences between an investor and a trader? Ah, a new thread! Post your repsonses there.
Jolly Jack, What i do is determine wether the current move is an impulse move or corrective, in my time frame(i trade 1 minute NQ and ES). I then enter on the corrective move, in the direction of the impulse wave. I look at the higher time frame Elliott to get an idea on targets and where i am. Not GPS coordinates, but at least i know what street i'm on. The key is, once i'm in i either exit at target or reverse my position when an impulse occurs in the opposite direction.(therefore i use large stops(20 pts NQ, 9.25 ES) but these rarely hit. So i don't really care what the count is, only if wave is impulse or corrective, and target. Been trading E-mini's this way since the day they opened, so can say it works.
We are still in a bear market. This is the start of the corrective 4th wave up. Eventually we are going to continue to drop. 2003 will also be an ugly year for the small time investor/mutual fund holder.