Say what you want about the Wave...

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by inandlong, Oct 18, 2002.

  1. but Elliot, Prechter, et al have not missed it yet.

    I have been in this camp long term since 1981, although I have to admit, 10,000 blew me away. I thought we had reached the zenith at 4400.

    There are posts of mine here that will attest well before this linked article was printed my thoughts about where my long term TA has us headed.

    The article below, even blows that out of the water... as did 10,000!{4DB7BBC8-CA0F-49A3-B5E9-AF20964AD5EA}&siteid=mktw

    Good trading and remember....
  2. well he was on cnbc last week sprouting that dow 4000 bs.if you shorted last week on his advice you arent feeling to good right now.most gurus are right no better than 50% of the time.
    forget gurus just trade the tape.
  3. Yes , good job... way to confuse long term trend with tape-reading. Why am I not surprised?

    Amazingly, there is a world beyond the tape. I didn't see the interview, but I wonder if Prechter said, "Short it now!" And if he did, I wonder if he were talking to the $2000 ES trader? Or for that matter, the tape reader. I wonder if the tape predicted the biggest bull market in the history of the world.

    Dow 1100 GE 22 7/8 s200... 22 15/16 s300... 23 s400...

    "There it is boys, right there on the tape... the Dow is going to 10,000 plus, it's time to hang on to these shares till GE gets to 120."

    Trade the tape..... that's a good one!
  4. prechter was discredited for over 15 years after one good call but i guess there comes a time for all gurus to return to sell their wares to the public.even old joe granvill pops up again every now and then.i think cnbc ect searches out these gurus to suit their opinion of the market at any given is an interesting old article on him:

    As most Elliot Wavers know, Prechter predicted a major top in 1987, and
    I believe a 10-15 year recession until 2001.His target was 3888, then a major
    crash on the DOW, but 10-15 years later, the DOW reached an all time high of
    11,908, and whatever guru-ship and credibility he built for decades
    evaporated. And to this day, he refused to acknowledge his massively blown
  5. Babak


    vhen, I agree with you in general but in his new book he does clearly acknowledge that he was wrong on that call.
  6. Prechter is all about promoting his books and his website, that's how he makes his money.

    As for his predictions, he makes plenty of them and I suppose some must turn out right but when you consider that for the most part his predictions are all too easily settled by the flip of a coin [ the price either goes up or down, its a 50/50 bet after all ]
    .......what's the big deal?

    Elliot wave theory is a load of crap. All the experts will take a chart and once they've done the analysis/ count they will be ready to explain where that market is in their perceived cycle and how the future will unfold. Now two things can happen, either the market goes up or down and if our expert gets it right some more suckers are going to be subscribing to Prechter's services but what if the market does the the complete opposite of what our elliotician has predicted?

    No problem...........He'll tell you that his count was wrong . Geddit? The theory works but his count was wrong. How difficult can it be to get a count wrong when you dont have to count beyond 5? Or , even better, our expert will tell you that elliot theory does'nt really work that well on the particular market that you've picked out. BTW the guy who started all this nonsense wrote a book entitled "Natures Law The Secret of the Universe" ...........with a title like that you would expect some form of recognition from the scientific community , perhaps even a Nobel prize but I'm afraid it's not going to happen.

    This rant of mine about elliot reminds me of the recent journal on this site where some deluded fellow pointed out that all his winning trades were thanks to God and the losers..........well I think it had something to do with his sins; but the point is if you believe this elliot nonsense the only thing that provides a proper cure is experience.

    One final observation about Prechter, vhehn's post is spot on , anybody who believes the crap that prechter is sprouting in his new book should be reminded of vhehn's post.
  7. m22au


    Prechter also acknowledged his bad call in an interview with Thom Calandra on CBS MW.

  8. bone

    bone ET Sponsor

    The real secret to the markets is that there is no secret. Trade correctly and you don't have to know where the market is going.
  9. just21


    Jeff Cooper and Robert Miner called last weeks low using Gann and fibonacci time projections respectively.
  10. I saw that Robert Miner call from Dynamic Traders, and posted it somewhere. That was certainly a good one. He called the the very day I believe.

    Prechter tuned me in to my first nice hit in the markets back in the early 80's. I was working for Dean Witter as a broker-trainee, studying from the broker-in-the-box. I had an options account open then and was doing some TA. I had purchased 5K worth of calls on a Friday, spread out over ITM's, ATM's, and OTM's. Prechter was on Wall Street Week that night and made a rally prediction. The market jumped that following Monday. To me, it was a causative effect.

    My 5K went to 50K in an exceedingly short time, and I never gave it back. From there I went on to a seat at the CME and traded spoos in the pit. Personal reasons took me out of the pit and I ended up changing professions altogether. Now for the last three years I am back to my first love... trading. Boy have times changes. Internet data, low commish, near-instant access from off the floor. Life is good!

    So I am biased about Prechter. Like the prodigal son, he can do no wrong, even when he is wrong.

    Good trading!
    #10     Oct 18, 2002