I dont think there is anyone here saying buffett cant pick stocks/companies. Whats being said is that this black swan(credit bubble bursting after 60 years or so) is likely to hit berkshire just like is hitting the entire capilistic world
Buffet is losing big on BAC, unlike my post "Financial Mutually Assured Destruction" at themarketchatter.blogspot.com . This will probably be a regrettable position when he reflects on it down the road. But Buffet wrote the no-lose 13 year European Put option that guarantees a 5 billion dollar payoff for nothing. Free money. I wish I could write those contracts.... I very seriously doubt any of his companies are performing below expectations in this economy. Most companies he has bought are decades old, and have always survived these periods. Can't say as much for BAC, but I wouldn't be the moron to short BRKA in his face.
Oh please... The thread's title is: Say goodbye to Berkshire Hathaway Someone else wrote: If the well-known short seller "Doug Kass" is saying "End of Warren Buffett", there has to be good meaning behind it. Maybe the stocks in Warren Buffett's investment portfolio are going to crash. As I said... people on ET second guessing Buffett on investing is like ants second guessing Einstein on physics.
Doug kass' assets and access to assets is about what Berkshire pays in commissions each year... so I doubt he's moving the Market at all. Short sellers occupy about 1% of AUM in the hedge fund industry - look it up.
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/04...&pf_rd_t=101&pf_rd_p=463383371&pf_rd_i=507846 This was a good read about what Buffett was doing while the credit bubble was bursting. Tavakoli says the credit bubble was not a black swan (or any other kind of swan event), but due to a lot of phony securitizations of bad loans. She explains that short sellers of most investment banks and banks were justified and the SEC is way off base with their allegations. Pretty compelling and readable analysis. She doesn't like bank or investment bank investments, but likes the core value of Berkshire Hathaway and owns the stock. Buffett reportedly likes the book and is talking about it at the Berkshire annual meeting in May.
Its time to say goodbye to Berkshire. When people were flocking to his meetings by the millions and paying over a mil just to have lunch with him that should have been a shore sign of a top. Its now time to get some short shares of Berkshire which Buffet will gladly lend to you. Berkshire is dead money and the shorts will win once again. In a few years, BRK.A will resemble a tech stock from 2000 which made incredible highs and then went out of business.
Oh, boy, port, you lose more credibility with each sentence. It was my recollection the person you are referring to was in 2006 with BRKA at about 80k. Then went to 145k. I seriously doubt there's much to say, because I don't think you could short even 100 shares of BRKB if you wanted to.
Your recollection sucks. It wasnt 2006, it was 2008. http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssFinancialServicesAndRealEstateNews/idUSN2646483420080628 Bye, bye Berkshire...