none of these is bold or unreasonable enough to be called a black swan. a black swan prediction might be some homeless guy in miami who used to sell furniture ends up president in 2008. sp500 drops 25%? come on, that's hardly a black swan. everyone knows the economy is weakening, is it that unreasonable to expect a 25% drop? jeez, so much for "outrageous predictions".
That actually wasn't from me, but let's say, Ron Paul winning the election, would that be a black swan?