The original cutoff date was August 21st but the public comment period has been extended a few weeks and now ENDS SEPTEMBER 6TH. As I mentioned earlier, well worth the effort, as it only helps in transparency and serves no purpose in eliminating it (other than for those who want to hide very useful information).
I find that shifts to one side from the other adds to my level of accuracy especially the large shifts. I'd be sad to see it go.
Been busy trading so please forgive the delay. Look at following chart. Look only at the b lack ADX line. Ignore DMI lines. This works best with weekly charts and the COT report. But you should get the jist. You need- ADX 7 bar Slow Stoc 14,3 Preferably weekly charts COT report Futures market to trade. No Cot for stocks even though this example is from a stock. This is the Pinch/paunch crudely explained. There are many subtleties. ADX measures trend strength. Strength perhaps wrong word. Integrity is better word. ADX <20, no integrity, no real trend ADX >40 strong trend ADX > 60 rare and near end of strong moves. Exhaustive. Stoch is simple momentum gauge + relative OB/OS levels. When stoc <25 (OS) at the same time ADX>40 and especially when >60, that is probably some sort of a low. It does not mean buy right then. You need to think a little. Dont try and catch a falling knife. Look at the first X on the chart. ADX is driving towards 60 and at the same time Stoc is very oversold. You see I drew two lines. One following ADX up and one following ADX down. Think of alligator opening his mouth to eat a Florida tourist with a big gut. This is Paunch. This trend more likely than not cant sustain itself. No sellers left. When stoc pops back above 25, (or whatever entry you use) probably going to get a good pop up. Pinch is sort of highlighted by 2nd X. It is not a true pinch but close enough. Best pinch occur when stoc > 75 and ADX <20. The lines are "pinching" together as you can see. What really is happening is there is buying but ADX tells you via its continuing negative slope that there is no integrity to the "rally". Probably some shorts taking profits off the table. As soon as stoc rolls back over, what happens? ADX starts gaining in value letting you know this is a real selling move. Until when? About when it hits 40 (a strong down trend) with OS stoc. This is a variation on the paunch. 2 vertical lines This is a fun little technique. Remember it does not call every swing, nor does it foretell the magnitude of the move. It kinda works on for stocks, but real power moves are hourly or greater. Daily, weekly etc are best. These are not scalp trades. Combined with weekly futures and COT report used in conjunction with extremes in commercials/public buying and selling and its one of the best set ups Ive come across. One warning these are long swing trades. Multi-day if not week(s). The shorter your time frame the less reliable it is. And simply the aligning of all these ingredients is not the buy/sell switch. Do your own DD. I will try and post some charts with COT if I can get my scanner to read them. They are faded due to age.
this is not good. While i don't trade heavily off the CFTC data per-say I watch it very very closely for everything. Like someone else said, it's always good to know where the Commercials are (who tend to lead) and where the large spec. are (tend to be right right on time for a short time, then very wrong). Email sent.
Looks like the COT Report will remain, and even be improved. I just read an 8/18 article on Shatterfield.com about it. Apparently they had over 4000 responses fm traders, and have decided to fix the data (seperate the Commercials and the Swaps) and create a 4th category. You can read about it here: http://www.shatterfield.com/index.2.php -Zoomerz
Interpretation & Use of COT Reports; Integrating into A Trading Strategy Live event: Sept. 12 @ 3:30 PM Chicago / 4:30 PM Eastern time. Floyd Upperman will show you how to interpret the CFTC's Commitments of Traders (COT) data properly and incorporate it into a complete trading system that also uses traditional technical analysis. He'll use material from his new book: Commitments of Traders: Strategies for Tracking the Market and Trading Profitably to explain the COT's unique value, how he's used it and how you can use it too. Floyd will also discuss what potential changes to the report could mean to the value of the data, and the direction he thinks the CFTC may head as it reviews industry comments concerning the COT report. Sponsored by Lind-Waldock. About the Speaker Trader and CTA Floyd Upperman is recognized as the leading expert and analyst of Commitments of Traders (COT) data. Upperman author of the highly reconized commodity trading book âCommitments of Tradersâ is the world's foremost authority on this long neglected subject. By understanding commercial activity and monitoring its behavior, a trader can potentially forecast significant changes in price direction. Floyd shows traders how to use the Commitments of Traders reports to accomplish this goal. A registered commodity trading advisor, Upperman provides daily analysis of his IMPA system on his Web site, www.upperman.com. A gifted and enthusiastic teacher, he communicates with students and clients throughout the world via his website.