Save me from myself

Discussion in 'Trading' started by DennisR, Apr 10, 2008.

  1. He's a pro and is doing his best to help you, but you're going to have to take responsibility for your own trading ... yeah, I know it's tough.
     
    #21     Apr 10, 2008
  2. lindq

    lindq


    First, my heart goes out to you. I was in very much the same position 5 years ago. Got greedy. Got killed. Welcome to the Options-Suckers club.

    You don't need anyone here telling you what you did wrong. Now you know.

    Selling half is good advice. You can relieve the anxiety and just let the rest run. It is your best option.

    The good news is that for the rest of your trading career, you will be (or should be) well aware of the risk in any position, in any market.

    The clear secret to survival as a trader - are you listening newbies - is to be completely aware at all times of the risk in a position assuming worst-case-scenario.

    Black swans are ever present. Always lurking around the corner.

    If a trader has any doubt at all about risk, then the best position is cash.

    3% on idle funds beats the hell out of panic, any day.
     
    #22     Apr 10, 2008
  3. Plenty of good advice given already re: risk and planning. I will just add that you should definitely stay away from trading vix derivatatives even if i'd rather see many more retail traders enter the instrument. These products are not for amateurs. You can lose[very likely] even when you win. If you dont know what i mean by this, then it confirms my point.

    Good luck.
     
    #23     Apr 10, 2008
  4. feotrader

    feotrader

    Sell 50 contracts of April 25 call for 2.0 credit.:D
     
    #24     Apr 10, 2008
  5. DennisR

    DennisR

    Thanks for the tips everyone. I'm going to close this out tomorrow. What a bad trade I made.

    This is also as close to a sure fire sign that the vix is about to spike, lol.

    Thanks again
    Dennis
     
    #25     Apr 10, 2008
  6. If you don't bet, you can't win. If you lose all your chips, you can't bet!
     
    #26     Apr 10, 2008
  7. Mvic

    Mvic

    Dennis sorry for the knee jerk reaction (jerk probably being the operative word, thanks lindq your more measured response made me see that I could have been more helpful even if my intentions were good), I didn't read your whole post before reacting to my own past and so many other newbies that make similar mistakes. Obviously you work hard for your money and it is just sad to see it being lost so unnecessarily. I think back to when I made similar mistakes and what they cost me and wish someone had been blunt with me then rather than having to learn from my mistakes at the hands of the market, the most ruthless and unmerciful teacher.

    OK this is not advice, that you have already received, get out of the trade BUT if found myself in your position, and it really is about as snookered as one can get in terms of trying to salvage something from the trade I might be tempted to look for an offset that would keep me in the trade without too much downside. Perhaps I might consider selling the Spy 132 puts and buying the 130s and keeping my vix calls. If the market spikes down to 132 the likelihood is that the vix calls will offset more than enough and if the market doesn't or moves up then you are no worse off than you are selling now (actually better off). It keeps one in the trade and if a sell off does happen (I actually think we are going to drift up into expiration but I could well be wrong) I think few are expecting it here so it could be sharp, but as I said I think this is unlikely. The key is that the credit from the spy put spread needs to be enough to fully offset the value of the vix calls minus and plus respective transaction costs. The vix calls are bid .1 and you have the cost of unwinding the position so as long as you can get a credit (minus commissions) for more than $10+ commissions it is an option I might consider. Right now the net credit at market is $19 and even with the commish it should more than cover the liquidation value of the vix calls.

    Likely what will happen is that everything expires worthless and the position ends up a little better off than it is now (in % terms actually with at least a 50% gain depending on what your commissions are and what credit you will get for the puts in the am). If the market tanks, again unlikely imo, then you may get a much better result and it doesn't cost you anything to take that risk (except opportunity cost which given your newbie status I am putting at $0 or at least less than the return of the credit from the spy put spread).

    Again my advice is to get out of the trade but wanted to let you know what I might do if I were in your position and didn't have any opportunity cost for staying in the trade (and assuming I had available BP to put on the put spread).

    Best of luck and I leave you with another quote that may also be helpful :"Press on: Nothing in the world can take the place of perseverance. Talent will not; nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not; the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent."

    Calvin Coolidge
     
    #27     Apr 10, 2008
  8. gwac

    gwac

    What is the point in selling his calls that are prob worth pennies right now. Better to hold on and see if the other shoe drops, which is always possible. His last purchase was at .15 so what are these things at now.
     
    #28     Apr 10, 2008
  9. Mvic

    Mvic

    Sorry but I disagree, the point is that $8 per option is better than $0. Not sure how many he has but even pennies collected are worth something especially to a guy that works construction. You are talking about a lottery ticket. Say he has 50 of these things, that is $400. Are you suggesting that a guy who works construction should be making a lottery play with that kind of money? These are not casino chips, that could be half his rent for all you and I know.
     
    #29     Apr 10, 2008
  10. gwac

    gwac

    He has already made the lottery play and is down 85% is my guess on this position. Time to get out of this position was a while a go. IMHO he should wait to see if his numbers come up.


     
    #30     Apr 10, 2008